[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 011244
SWODY1
SPC AC 011243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT SUN OCT 01 2006

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...NJ TO SRN NEW ENGLAND TODAY...
A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WILL MOVE EWD
TO OFF THE SRN NEW ENGLAND AND MID ATLANTIC COASTS BY EARLY TONIGHT.
A BAND OF RAIN/EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SRN NEW
ENGLAND TODAY WITH THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT WHICH PRECEDES THE MID
LEVEL WAVE.  DESPITE THE STRONGER VERTICAL SHEAR...INSTABILITY WILL
BE LIMITED UNTIL THE STEEPER LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES /6.5-7 C/KM/
ARRIVE WITH THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL /-22 C AT 500 MB/...LARGELY IN
THE WAKE OF THIS PRECIPITATION BAND.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS OF
56-62 F AND DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S WILL COMBINE WITH THE
MODEST LAPSE RATES TO SUPPORT WEAK SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY BY
EARLY AFTERNOON /SBCAPE OF 250-500 J/KG/.

VERTICAL SHEAR MAY SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL OR SMALL BOWING STRUCTURES
NEAR THE SRN NEW ENGLAND COAST TODAY WITHIN THE PRIMARY RAIN
BAND...BUT WEAK INSTABILITY WILL TEND TO LIMIT THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  OTHERWISE...ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY FORM
WITHIN THE MID LEVEL COLD POOL THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE SOME SMALL
HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

...SRN WI/SW LOWER MI AREA TONIGHT...
A LEE TROUGH IS INDUCING SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  THIS MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S/ WILL SPREAD NWD/NNEWD ACROSS THE ERN PLAINS TOWARD THE
UPPER MS VALLEY BY TONIGHT.  THE MOISTURE RETURN WILL OCCUR BENEATH
A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AND IN A REGIME OF HEIGHT RISES IN THE
WAKE OF THE OH VALLEY TROUGH...THUS DEEP CONVECTION IS NOT EXPECTED
TODAY. THE THREAT FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE LATE
TONIGHT ACROSS SRN WI/SW LOWER MI AS PARCELS GRADUALLY APPROACH
SATURATION IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER...WHERE WAA WILL BE MAXIMIZED ON
THE NOSE OF A 40 KT LLJ.  ELEVATED CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
MAY BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR SOME HAIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 10/01/2006