[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271241
SWODY1
SPC AC 271239

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0639 AM CST MON NOV 27 2006

VALID 271300Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS IN PLACE THIS MORNING OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN UNITED STATES...WHILE UPPER RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST.  ONE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER
NM WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS TODAY. 
SURFACE BAROCLINIC ZONE LIES ALONG AN AXIS FROM THE NORTHWEST TX
PANHANDLE INTO NORTHEAST KS...AND WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE THROUGH 00Z.
 INCREASINGLY STRONG SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO HELP
TRANSPORT MOIST AND MARGINALLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS NORTHWARD ACROSS
TX/OK/KS.  

FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE BY LATE MORNING ALONG
FRONTAL ZONE AS UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT
IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM WESTERN OK INTO KS AND
NORTHWEST MO.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW ONLY MARGINAL LAPSE RATES. 
HOWEVER...STRENGTH OF WIND FIELDS/VERTICAL SHEAR COUPLED WITH
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY MAY LEAD TO AN ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORM
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL.  THREAT SHOULD
BE RESTRICTED TO A NARROW ZONE ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY EAST OF FRONTAL
ZONE.

ELSEWHERE IN THE NATION...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST AND THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.  NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST IN THESE REGIONS.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 11/27/2006