[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271624
SWODY1
SPC AC 271621

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1021 AM CST MON NOV 27 2006

VALID 271630Z - 281200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE COLD UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN OVER WRN U.S WITH A
BROAD SWLY FLOW FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE APPALACHIANS. LEADING EDGE
OF THE ARCTIC AIR FROM CENTRAL IA TO NWRN OK/TX PANHANDLE WILL BEGIN
RETREATING NWD INTO KS THIS AFTERNOON AS PRESSURE FALLS DEVELOP LEE
OF ROCKIES.

MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD/NEWD THRU SRN/CENTRAL
PLAINS ON 30KT LOW LEVEL JET.  LIMITED POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN WARM
SECTOR WITH LAPSE RATES GENERALLY LESS THAN 7C/KM AND EXTENSIVE
CLOUDINESS.

S/WV TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW AROUND DEEP WESTERN SYSTEM
CURRENTLY ROTATING NEWD FROM NM ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE LIFT PROVIDED BY THE FRONT AND MLCAPES FROM 300-500 J/KG
THIS AFTERNOON...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP VICINITY AND JUST
E OF FRONTAL ZONE. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR FROM 40-50 KTS A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/BRIEFLY SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.  COVERAGE AND EXPECTED LIMITED INTENSITY PRECLUDES A SLIGHT
RISK.

..HALES/JEWELL.. 11/27/2006