[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 251235
SWODY1
SPC AC 251233

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0633 AM CST SAT NOV 25 2006

VALID 251300Z - 261200Z

...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SEVERAL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS MOVING
ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES.  DESPITE LOCAL FORCING FOR VERTICAL
MOTION IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THESE FEATURES...RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES AGAIN
TODAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS.  THERE
IS...HOWEVER...ONE AREA TO BE MONITORED.

...WESTERN CO THIS EVENING...
UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE LA BASIN IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EASTWARD AND INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY THIS EVENING. 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT AIR MASS AHEAD OF SYSTEM IS
CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES...BUT VERY LITTLE
LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE.  LIFT AHEAD OF TROUGH...COUPLED WITH
OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS...MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES AFTER DARK ACROSS WESTERN CO. 
HOWEVER...DEEP CONVECTIVE THREAT APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO OUTLOOK AT
THIS TIME.

..HART/TAYLOR.. 11/25/2006