[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 211619
SWODY1
SPC AC 211617

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1017 AM CST TUE NOV 21 2006

VALID 211630Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AMPLIFIED UPPER AIR PATTERN OVER CENTRAL/ERN CONUS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH PERIOD...WITH PRONOUNCED RIDGING FROM NRN MEX NEWD ACROSS
MID/UPPER MS VALLEY.  DOWNSTREAM...ANOMALOUSLY DEEP CYCLONE ALOFT --
CHARACTERIZED BY 90M/12H 500 MB HEIGHT FALLS TO ITS S AT EYW -- IS
FCST TO MEANDER SLOWLY ACROSS NRN FL TOWARD ATLANTIC WATERS OFFSHORE
GA.  AS THIS OCCURS...ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL CYCLONE WILL PROCEED
DEEPER INTO OCCLUSION PROCESS...BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE
VERTICALLY STACKED WITH RESPECT TO MID/UPPER VORTEX.

FARTHER NW...SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL PIVOT EWD AND NEWD
AROUND NERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW...FROM COASTAL WA/ORE NEWD ACROSS
INTERIOR WA AND SRN BC.  MAIN PERTURBATION -- INDICATED BY  MOISTURE
CHANNEL IMAGERY INVOF WA COAST AND JUST OFFSHORE ORE -- IS EXPECTED
TO DEAMPLIFY AS IT MOVES INLAND THROUGH REMAINDER PERIOD. 
ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL FRONT -- NOW EVIDENT FROM NRN CASCADES SSWWD
ACROSS NWRN CA -- LIKEWISE SHOULD WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INLAND.  THOUGH
SEVERAL AREAS OF MRGL GEN TSTM POTENTIAL EXIST WITH THESE
REGIMES...INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SVR
POTENTIAL.

...NWRN CONUS...
POTENTIAL LINGERS FOR ISOLATED TSTMS WITHIN PORTIONS OF LOW LEVEL
WAA PLUME AND CORRESPONDING BELT OF LOW-MIDLEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT
-- FROM NRN CA NEWD ACROSS NRN ROCKIES.  AS SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
NEAR COAST MOVES INLAND...FAVORABLE LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND TSTM
POTENTIAL IN WARM CONVEYOR EACH SHOULD WEAKEN FROM SW-NE...ENDING
OVER NRN CA AREA WITHIN NEXT 3-4 HOURS BUT PERSISTING EPISODICALLY
OVER PORTIONS INTERIOR NW AND NRN ROCKIES INTO EARLY TONIGHT. 
MEANWHILE...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MINIMAL CINH WILL HELP
TO SUPPORT RISK OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED...SHALLOW...POSTFRONTAL TSTMS ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF
WA/ORE.  IN THIS REGIME...CHARACTERIZED BY 500 MB TEMPS TO AROUND
-30 C...MUCAPES MAY REACH TO NEAR 300 J/KG WITH BUOYANCY VERTICALLY
EXTENDING INTO FAVORABLE ICING LAYERS FOR LIGHTNING PRODUCTION.

...SRN ATLANTIC COASTAL REGION...
AS DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MEANDERS OFFSHORE GA COAST...LOW LEVEL FRONTAL
FORCING AND WAA CONVEYOR WILL WRAP AROUND NRN/WRN SECTORS OF THIS
SYSTEM.  EXPECT FAVORABLE MOISTURE...ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND LIFT
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS OVER COASTAL AREAS...BECOMING MORE COMMON
OFFSHORE WHERE OCEANIC HEAT FLUXES WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LOW LEVEL
BUOYANCY.

..EDWARDS/GRAMS.. 11/21/2006

WWWW