[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 212000
SWODY1
SPC AC 211958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0158 PM CST TUE NOV 21 2006

VALID 212000Z - 221200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...ERN CAROLINAS...
MARINE FRONT SEEMS TO HAVE MOVED WWD TOWARD THE NC OUTER BANKS PER
BUOY 41025 WHERE A WIND SHIFT TO ELY OCCURRED AND TEMPERATURE/DEW
POINTS HAVE CLIMBED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. MAINTENANCE OF
STRONG ISENTROPIC LIFT ON THE COLD SIDE OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...PREVENTING THE MARINE
BOUNDARY LAYER /MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT/ FROM REACHING THE OUTER
BANKS. AS SUCH...NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. 
BUT...SPORADIC TSTMS ARE LIKELY INLAND WITHIN THE ENHANCED MESOSCALE
BANDS ALONG NWRN SIDE OF THE MATURING CYCLONE. SATL INDICATES THAT
THE NEXT LOBE OF VORTICITY WILL ROTATE NWD INTO PRIMARILY ERN NC
DURING THE EVENING.  THIS WILL LIKELY ENHANCE THE MID-LEVEL
FRONTOGENETIC RESPONSE AND TSTM PROBABILITIES. FURTHER DETAILS CAN
BE FOUND IN NEWLY ISSUED MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2229.

...PAC NW...
CONSIDERABLE OPEN-CELL CUMULIFORM CLOUD TEXTURES ARE EVIDENT ON VSBL
SATL IMAGERY OFFSHORE WA/ORE WITHIN CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME SITUATED
ACROSS THE PAC NW.  A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES CONTINUE ALONG/W OF THE
COASTAL RANGES AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE THROUGH THIS
EVENING.  TSTM CHANCES SHOULD HAVE PEAKED AS SLIGHT WARMING OCCURS
ALOFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT DISTURBANCE EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ONSHORE ON
WED.

OTHERWISE...ISOLD TSTMS MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NRN
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AHEAD OF A WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE PASSING ACROSS
THE REGION.

..RACY.. 11/21/2006

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