[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120046
SWODY1
SPC AC 120044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0644 PM CST SAT NOV 11 2006

VALID 120100Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES SWD TO FL...

INTENSE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY IS FORECAST TO EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW LATE TONIGHT AS IT TRANSLATES EWD INTO
THE PIEDMONT REGION.  IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE COLD FRONT ALONG
THE APPALACHIANS WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE PIEDMONT AND COASTAL PLAIN
WITH SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING ALONG THE FRONT OVER ERN NC
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING.

RADAR AND LIGHTNING DATA INDICATE RECENT INTENSIFICATION OF STORMS
OVER WRN NC INTO SWRN VA...PRESUMABLY AS STRONGER LARGE-SCALE
FORCING OVERSPREADS FRONTAL ZONE.  12/00Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE LIMITING AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION...EXCEPT NEAR THE
FRONT OVER THE FL PENINSULA WHERE SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WAS 
PRESENT.

INTENSE LARGE-SCALE FORCING OWING TO DEEPENING SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
SHOULD SUPPORT SOME AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS FORECAST ALONG FRONTAL ZONE. SOME THREAT
OF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGEST STORMS. 
HOWEVER...ANY MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO
REGION OF COMPARABLY STRONGER CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY ALONG THE GULF
STREAM TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

..MEAD.. 11/12/2006