[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120516
SWODY1
SPC AC 120514

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 PM CST SAT NOV 11 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

MID AND UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER THE PIEDMONT REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EWD INTO THE WRN ATLANTIC BY
TONIGHT.  MEANWHILE...A MORE PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH /NOW OVER
THE LOWER CO VALLEY/ WILL TRANSLATE EWD THROUGH THE CNTRL/SRN
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS STATES LATER TODAY.

IN THE LOW-LEVELS...SURFACE CYCLONE ATTENDANT TO ERN U.S. UPPER LOW
IS FORECAST TO UNDERGO OCCLUSION AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS NEWD FROM
NERN NC INTO THE ATLANTIC.  ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD OFF
THE NC COAST EARLY IN THE PERIOD.  TO THE W...PACIFIC COLD FRONT
/INITIALLY FROM THE ERN DAKOTAS INTO CNTRL HIGH PLAINS/ WILL PUSH
SEWD THROUGH THE MO VALLEY AND CNTRL INTO SRN PLAINS.

...SRN NEW ENGLAND SWD THROUGH THE TIDEWATER TO ERN NC...

CLUSTERS OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING AT THE ONSET OF THE FORECAST PERIOD
ALONG COLD FRONT AND INVOF DEEPENING CYCLONE OVER ERN NC WITHIN ZONE
OF STRONG DEEP LAYER FORCING FOR ASCENT.  MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE AND LAPSE RATES WILL LIMIT THE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WITHIN
PREFRONTAL AIR MASS ACROSS ERN NC AND THE OUTER BANKS. SOME
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY
WINDS/SMALL HAIL THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS OWING TO THE INTENSE
FORCING AND RELATIVELY STRONG WIND FIELDS.  HOWEVER...THE GREATER
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE...NEARER TO THE GULF STREAM.

OTHER ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE N AND NW OF OCCLUDING
SYNOPTIC SYSTEM ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AND SRN NEW ENGLAND COASTS
AS STRONG LOW-LEVEL WAA CONTRIBUTES TO AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION AND
WEAK ELEVATED CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  

...PACIFIC NW COAST...

A SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT TO CURRENT IS FORECAST TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS AS MOIST ONSHORE FLOW AND RELATIVELY COLD MID-LEVEL
TEMPERATURES CONTRIBUTE TO A WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT.  TSTM
POTENTIAL SHOULD TEND TO DIMINISH LATER TODAY AS LOW-LEVEL WIND
FIELDS BACK IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE NEXT SYNOPTIC SYSTEM
FROM THE NERN PACIFIC.

..MEAD/GRAMS.. 11/12/2006