[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110539
SWODY1
SPC AC 110537

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1137 PM CST FRI NOV 10 2006

VALID 111200Z - 121200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE AND PROGRESSIVE MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE TRAIN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE U.S. AS ANOTHER STRONG TROUGH MOVES
INLAND FROM THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE ROCKIES...AND A
COMPACT BUT POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH CLOSES OFF AND TAKES ON A
NEGATIVE TILT FROM THE SRN APPALACHIANS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS/MID
ATLANTIC.

SYSTEM MOVING EAST FROM THE CNTRL U.S. EARLY TODAY IS EXPECTED TO
UNDERGO FURTHER AMPLIFICATION AS IT EVOLVES INTO A CLOSED LOW BY
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND CAROLINAS. PRIMARY
SURFACE LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG UPPER TROUGH WILL START OUT
THE PERIOD ACROSS THE ERN GREAT LAKES/PA/NY AREAS. WITH TIME...
STRONG JET ENERGY MOVING THROUGH THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
INDUCE PRONOUNCED HEIGHT FALLS AND SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC REGION THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY. THE COLD FRONT
ACCOMPANYING THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM OH TO LA THIS MORNING AND
SHOULD REACH THE APPALACHIANS BY THIS EVENING. THE SRN SEGMENT OF
THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN APPALACHIANS AND THEN
SURGE OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S COAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS
DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE INTENSIFIES OVER ERN NC/VA.

...AL/GA ACROSS SRN/CNTRL APPALACHIANS...CAROLINAS/VA...
A NARROW AXIS OF GREATER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 
50S TO LOW 60S/ EXPECTED TO ADVECT NEWD AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
ERN AL...ACROSS GA...AND OVER PARTS OF THE WRN CAROLINAS THROUGH
LATE TODAY. GENERALLY WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE FORECAST TO
LIMIT STRONGER DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE FRONT...AND
INCREASINGLY STRONG DYNAMIC FORCING AND WIND FIELDS WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH...SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
NARROW LOW-TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION THROUGH LATE EVENING FROM GA
NNEWD TO VA. CONVECTION MAY BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE NIGHT GIVEN
STRONG CYCLOGENETIC FORCING FORECAST TO OCCUR ACROSS THE CAROLINAS
AND VA. LACK OF GREATER INSTABILITY MAY BE OFFSET BY INCREASINGLY
STRONG LIFT AND SHEAR TO SUPPORT AN ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUST OR
PERHAPS SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES WILL
BE MAINTAINED FOR THIS POTENTIAL.

...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING APPEAR LIKELY AS WEAKLY
UNSTABLE ONSHORE/UPSLOPE FLOW PERSISTS IN THE WAKE OF EWD-MOVING
UPPER TROUGH. MOST LIKELY AREAS FOR ONSHORE THUNDER SHOULD BE
LIMITED TO THE WINDWARD SLOPES OF THE OLYMPICS AND COASTAL RANGES.

..CARBIN/GRAMS.. 11/11/2006