[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 070548
SWODY1
SPC AC 070546

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1146 PM CST MON NOV 06 2006

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SERN U.S. THIS
PERIOD.  MEANWHILE...FAST/ZONAL FLOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NWRN AND
INTO THE N CENTRAL CONUS N OF LOW-AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE SWRN
QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY.  

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK LOW AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ALSO SHIFT EWD ACROSS AL/GA/FL THROUGH
THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

...FL NWD ALONG THE IMMEDIATE ATLANTIC COAST...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AHEAD OF LARGE UPPER
TROUGH.  WITH WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION ACROSS THIS
REGION...POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION APPEARS TO BE QUITE LIMITED. 
THEREFORE...DESPITE MODERATELY-STRONG DEEP-LAYER FLOW ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST...SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE LOW ATTM.  

WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY THREAT ACROSS FL...AS COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  WILL ALSO MAINTAIN A LOW-PROBABILITY THREAT ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COASTS OF SERN GA AND THE CAROLINAS...TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY THAT HIGHER THETA-E GULF STREAM AIRMASS NEAR THE COAST
MAY SUPPORT STORM DEVELOPMENT INVOF FRONT AS IT APPROACHES LATE IN
THE PERIOD.  ATTM HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT MOST IF NOT ALL
SURFACE-BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

..GOSS.. 11/07/2006