[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 071240
SWODY1
SPC AC 071238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0638 AM CST TUE NOV 07 2006

VALID 071300Z - 081200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS
THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER
GA/AL...ACCOMPANYING A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  THE
PRIMARY SURFACE LOW IS CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN TN...BUT CYCLOGENESIS
IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT RAPIDLY EASTWARD TO THE CAROLINA COAST BY
AFTERNOON.  LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL BE IN PLACE
THROUGHOUT THE SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY...YIELDING A CONTINUATION OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM MS/AL INTO NC/VA DURING
THIS PERIOD.

...MS/AL/FL/GA...
LOW LEVEL TRAJECTORIES ARE SOUTHEASTERLY ACROSS MUCH OF THE FL
PENINSULA AND EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  THIS IS NOT TAPPING THE
TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH...AND IS ONLY RESULTING IN DEWPOINTS
IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS THE FL PANHANDLE.  ONLY MODEST INCREASES IN
MOISTURE ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA TODAY.  THUS...MLCAPE VALUES WILL
GENERALLY BE BELOW 500 J/KG OVER PARTS OF MS/AL/GA/FL. ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE COAST MAY POSE A RISK OF LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OR A
BRIEF TORNADO. HOWEVER...OVERALL THREAT APPEARS RATHER LOW.

...SC/NC...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/INSTABILITY IS ALSO FORECAST TO INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON OVER THE CAROLINAS AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS AND
SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN.  SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG OR JUST OFF THE COAST AND MOVE SLOWLY INLAND
AHEAD OF LOW.  WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION IS LIKELY TO PRECLUDE STRONG
DAYTIME HEATING IN THIS AREA.  NEVERTHELESS...MARGINAL INSTABILITY
MAY BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN STRONG LOW LEVEL WINDS VEERING/INCREASING
WITH HEIGHT AND LARGE SCALE FORCING.  STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE
DAMAGING WINDS OR A TORNADO.  WILL MAINTAIN ONLY LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME DUE TO LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DEVELOPMENT
OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 11/07/2006