[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041622
SWODY1
SPC AC 041620

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1020 AM CST SAT NOV 04 2006

VALID 041630Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS...
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER UT WILL TRACK E/SEWD TOWARDS THE
OK/TX PANHANDLES BY SUNDAY MORNING. A 30-40 KT S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
WILL BE SUSTAINED AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH FROM CNTRL TX INTO ERN OK.
MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /AS SAMPLED BY 12Z DRT SOUNDING/ WILL BE
DRAWN N/NEWD. IN ADDITION...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 7 C/KM
SHOULD BE ADVECTED EWD ATOP THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS ACROSS
WRN/CNTRL OK AND N-CNTRL TX. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
MARGINAL ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPES OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG IN
THIS REGION LATER TONIGHT. AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES WITH THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHING...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD
DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY BY THE 09-12Z TIME FRAME. A FEW STORMS MAY
CONTAIN SOME MARGINAL HAIL. FURTHER E...OTHER TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP
IN THE LOW-LEVEL MOIST AXIS...MAINLY AFTER DARK.

...SRN CO...
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS DAYTIME
HEATING CONTINUES. COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS /AROUND -18C AT 500 MB/ IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE UT SHORTWAVE SHOULD RESULT IN WEAK INSTABILITY
FOR A FEW TSTMS. CONVECTION SHOULD BE DIURNAL IN NATURE AND DIMINISH
AFTER SUNSET.

..GRAMS/THOMPSON.. 11/04/2006