[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 041956
SWODY1
SPC AC 041953

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0153 PM CST SAT NOV 04 2006

VALID 042000Z - 051200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SRN PLAINS INTO OZARK PLATEAU...

VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONAL DATA TRENDS
INDICATE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASING NWD FROM THE NWRN GULF OF
MEXICO INTO NWRN TX...DOWNSTREAM FROM SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS.  THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD
OVERNIGHT...PROMOTING NOCTURNAL LLJ DEVELOPMENT FROM THE LOWER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY INTO ERN OK.

ELEVATED TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO BECOMING INCREASINGLY LIKELY
OVERNIGHT ALONG THIS LLJ AXIS WHERE WAA/ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE WILL BE
COLOCATED WITH THE INCREASE IN MOISTURE /MOST NOTABLY IN THE 850-800
MB LAYER/ AND STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  SOME SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THE STRONGER STORMS...BUT NO SEVERE WEATHER IS
ANTICIPATED.  

...SWRN TX...

VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RUC OBJECTIVE FIELDS INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER
BECOMING PROGRESSIVELY MORE BUOYANT THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO DIABATIC
HEATING AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH SBCAPES OF 1000-1500 J/KG
AND LITTLE OR NO CONVECTIVE INHIBITION.  LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE WEAK...HOWEVER SUBTLE OROGRAPHIC
FORCING MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE ISOLATED TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EVENING ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

..MEAD.. 11/04/2006