[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 090558
SWODY1
SPC AC 090556

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1156 PM CST WED NOV 08 2006

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
PROGRESSIVE SHORT WAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY MOVING OVER THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST...WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN
THROUGH 12Z TODAY BEFORE MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NRN/CNTRL PLAINS BY 12Z FRIDAY. HEIGHT FALLS WITH THIS DISTURBANCE 
WILL CONTRIBUTE TO LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER CO LATER TODAY. AS THE
UPPER TROUGH SPREADS OVER THE PLAINS STATES LATER TONIGHT...THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA WILL REFORM ALONG A DEEP-LAYER
BAROCLINIC ZONE BISECTING THE PLAINS FROM IA SWWD TO OK.

...INTERMOUNTAIN REGION...
COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMANATING FROM
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK DESTABILIZATION
/MUCAPE 100-200 J PER KG/ ACROSS PARTS OF NRN UT...WY...AND NWRN CO
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  WEAK CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD ENSUE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE A FEW ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
TSTMS APPEAR POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

...LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...
STRENGTHENING MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND LIFT IN ADVANCE OF THE
APPROACHING TROUGH AND FRONTAL ZONE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF
HIGHER THETA-E AIR AHEAD OF DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW FROM OK TO KS BY
LATE TONIGHT. DESPITE INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH LATE IN THE
PERIOD ACROSS THIS AREA...WEAKER CAPPING AND STRONGER FORCING FOR
ASCENT ARE FORECAST TO EXIST PRIMARILY NORTH OF THE RESULTING
INSTABILITY AXIS...FROM NERN KS INTO SRN IA. LATEST GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS FORCING AND DESTABILIZATION ALONG THE FRONTAL BAND AND
AHEAD OF THE DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR
CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
LIKELY EXIST ATOP A STABLE POST-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT WHERE MUCAPE UP
TO 500 J/KG AND STRONG SHEAR COULD CONTRIBUTE TO A VERY LOW
PROBABILITY HAIL THREAT. GIVEN LATE IN THE PERIOD DEVELOPMENT AND
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY...IT IS TOO EARLY TO
INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME.

..CARBIN/LEVIT.. 11/09/2006