[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 281958
SWODY1
SPC AC 281957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

VALID 282000Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SRN GA AND PARTS OF
NRN/CNTRL FL...

...NRN PLAINS...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A 995 LOW NCNTRL ND WITH A COLD FRONT
EXTENDING S THROUGH CNTRL SD...THEN WWD ACROSS NCNTRL NEB INTO NERN
CO.  OUTFLOW FROM MANT/NWRN ONT MCS HAS STALLED FROM NEAR KINL WWD
TO JUST N OF KRDR THEN TO THE LOW.  

THOUGH THE AIR MASS WAS BEGINNING TO RECOVER ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
BORDER...VERY WARM H8-H7 TEMPERATURES CONTINUES TO CAP A HOT AND
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE PLAINS.  LATEST RUC/ACARS SHOWS +14
DEGREE C H7 TEMPERATURES SURGING INTO SRN MANT/NWRN ONT THROUGH LATE
AFTN.  THUS...PROSPECTS FOR SFC-BASED STORM INITIATION ARE NOT
HIGH...BUT NOT ENTIRELY OUT OF THE QUESTION...ALONG THE OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY OR COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AFTN IN THE U.S.  THUS...HAVE
MAINTAINED CONDITIONAL LOW PROBABILITIES FOR TORNADOES AND/OR LARGE
HAIL-DAMAGING WINDS OVER FAR NERN ND AND NWRN MN.  

UPSTREAM...BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW WAS BEGINNING TO TURN UPSLOPE ACROSS
SWRN SD...NEB AND WY...OWING TO WY CYCLOGENESIS AND DIURNAL AFFECTS.
 WATER VAPOR SHOWS EVIDENCE OF A WEAK SPEED MAX MOVING NWD THROUGH
THE CNTRL ROCKIES.  AS WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/WEAK COOLING ALOFT SPREAD
NEWD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SD AND WY LATER THIS AFTN.  THESE STORMS WILL
PROBABLY DEVELOP ENEWD ALONG/N OF THE COLD FRONT INTO NWRN NEB AND
SD OVERNIGHT.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR IMPROVES WEST OF THE FRONT AND
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL ALONG THE HIGHER PLAINS.
 IT IS NOT CLEAR HOW OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY WILL EVOLVE...BUT IT IS
REASONABLE TO EXPECT A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS TO LIFT ENEWD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE DAKS WITH RISKS OF DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND PERHAPS AN
ISOLD TORNADO. 

..SRN HIGH PLAINS...
SATL SHOWS SMALL CU DEVELOPING VCNTY THE CAPROCK WHERE BOUNDARY
LAYER HAS BECOME HOT AND SFC DEW POINTS HAVE REMAINED 52-61 DEGREE
F.  PRIND HIGH-BASED TSTMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CAPROCK AFT 22Z
AND COULD BRIEFLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR.  COVERAGE WILL BE LESS THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT GIVEN MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE LIKELY. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH DURING THE
EVENING.

...DEEP S TX...
COLD POOL FROM NIGHTTIME SCNTRL TX MCS HAS GONE STATIONARY NW-SE
ACROSS DEEP S TX.  TSTMS CONTINUE TO FORM ALONG THIS BOUNDARY WHERE
CINH HAS ERODED OWING TO STRONG HEATING/MOISTENING AND CIRCULATION
INVOF THE COLD POOL.  STORM MERGERS WILL BRIEFLY ENHANCE UPDRAFTS
AND STORMS COULD GIVE LOCAL DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

...MID-SOUTH TO FL...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM EASTERN AL ALONG THE FL PENINSULA
TODAY. AIR MASS UNDER RIDGE IS VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE WITH DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70F AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. WEAK WINDS
ALOFT WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION WITH PULSE-TYPE STORMS MOST
LIKELY.  HOWEVER...SEA-BREEZE INTERACTIONS AND REMNANT WEAK
COLDFRONT MAY HELP FOCUS ACTIVITY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS AND HAIL IN STRONGEST CELLS.

..RACY.. 05/28/2006