[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 290102
SWODY1
SPC AC 290100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SUN MAY 28 2006

VALID 290100Z - 291200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX AND WRN
OK...

...NRN PLAINS...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND RUC ANALYSIS SHOW SSWLY FLOW ACROSS
THE HIGH PLAINS WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW OVER
NERN CO AND SERN WY. AN MCS IS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE AND
WILL LIKELY CONTINUE NEWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL SD THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH THE MAIN AXIS OF INSTABILITY IS LOCATED WELL EAST OF THE
EXPECTED TRACK OF THE MCS...THE STORM COMPLEX SHOULD MOVE INTO
INCREASING INSTABILITY HELPING TO SUSTAIN THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD POSSIBLY REACHING ERN ND AND NWRN MN
LATE TONIGHT.

ALTHOUGH THE MCS IS CURRENTLY IN AN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY...THE
STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR SHOWN ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN WRN SD SUGGEST
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE. AS THE STORMS MOVE INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY...THE SUPERCELL THREAT MAY INCREASE CONTINUING
OVERNIGHT. IN ADDITION...OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A PLUME OF VERY
STEEP LAPSE RATES EXTENDING NEWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO ERN SD. THIS
COMBINED WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGESTS A THREAT FOR
LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE WILL BE ILKLEY WITH THE STRONGER
SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOW ECHOES. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT WILL ALSO
LIKELY EXIST AS LOW-LEVEL SHEAR PROFILES BECOME MORE FAVORABLE DUE
TO A 60 KT LOW-LEVEL JET EXPANDING NWD INTO CNTRL SD LATE THIS
EVENING.

...WEST TX AND WRN OK...
LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SWLY FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE IS LOCATED FROM WRN KS EXTENDING SWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE INTO WEST TX ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
THE CAPROCK. SFC DEWPOINTS EAST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60 F WHERE AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS LOCATED.
ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ALONG THE INSTABILITY
GRADIENT. CURRENT STORM INTENSITY SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF THE
EVENING AS SEVERAL MCS CLUSTERS DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO INCREASING
INSTABILITY. THE JAYTON TX PROFILER CURRENTLY SHOWS 0-6 KM SHEAR
VALUES OF 35-40 KT SUGGESTING THE SUPERCELL THREAT WILL CONTINUE.
STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO MID-LEVELS EXCEED 8.0 C/KM AND
THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED WIND
DAMAGE POTENTIAL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

..BROYLES.. 05/29/2006