[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 271959
SWODY1
SPC AC 271957

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0257 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VLY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ERN GA AND SRN
SC...

...NRN PLAINS...
19Z SFC ANALYSIS PLACES A SFC LOW SW OF KBIS WITH A FRONT SITUATED
FROM CYWG-KDIK-KGCC.  18Z BIS RAOB SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL CINH IN THE
WARM SECTOR WITH H7 TEMPERATURES AOA 12 DEGREES C AND CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 90S.

PROFILERS/VWPS SEEM TO SUGGEST THAT A SPEED MAX IS DEVELOPING NEWD
THROUGH THE CNTRL ROCKIES AND MAY BE AIDING HIGH BASED CONVECTION
ACROSS THE SANDHILLS OF NEB AND ECNTRL WY. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
INTO THE DAKS LATER THIS EVENING...TSTMS ARE APT TO DEVELOP. 
QUESTION REMAINS IF STORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE WARM SECTOR OR ON THE
COLD SIDE OF THE FRONT.  MOST LIKELY SCENARIO WOULD BE FOR NOCTURNAL
STORMS TO FORM ATOP THE COLDER AIR ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS WITH
THREATS FOR LARGE HAIL.  BUT...THERE WILL BE A CONDITIONAL THREAT
FOR MORE SFC-BASED STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG THE EDGE OF THE STRONGER
CAP IN EXTREME NRN SD AND CNTRL/ERN ND THIS EVE.  0-6KM SHEAR IN THE
WARM SECTOR WAS WEAK...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES SUGGEST ANY
STORM COULD EVOLVE INTO SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL...HIGH WINDS AND
A TORNADO OR TWO.  EVOLUTION INTO A NOCTURNAL MCS SEEMS REASONABLE
AS THE LLJ ACCELERATES...CROSSING THE RED RVR VLY BY EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING.

...UPPER MS VLY...
DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ON THE PERIPHERY OF A MORNING CORN BELT MCS HAS
DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE UPPER MS VLY.  THIS HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO INCREASING DEEP MOIST CONVECTION DOWNSTREAM... ARCING
FROM ECNTRL MN THROUGH CNTRL WI...THEN SWWD INTO NRN IL.  ACTIVITY
SHOULD CONTINUE TO SPREAD RADIALLY OUTWARD...REACHING UPPER MI AND
SRN WI...NRN IL THROUGH THE NIGHT.  AT LEAST THROUGH
MID-EVENING...STORMS MAY CONTAIN LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.


...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER MSTR HAS BEEN MAINTAINED ALONG/E OF THE
CAPROCK SWD INTO THE LWR TRANSPECOS VLY AND THE BIG BEND REGION. 
TSTMS HAVE INITIATED...PRIMARILY OVER THE DAVIS...DEL NORTE
MOUNTAINS OF SW TX.  FARTHER N...A PERSISTENT CU FIELD WAS EVIDENT
OVER THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS AND BENEATH A MID-LEVEL CLOUD PATCH OVER
THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF W TX.  AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO
HEAT...TSTMS WILL THRIVE NEAR THE SW TX MOUNTAINS AND PROBABLY
INITIATE FARTHER N INVOF CAPROCK FROM JUST E OF KLBB SWD AFTER
22Z...AIDED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT.  EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR 
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...BUT MAGNITUDE OF LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
SLOW MOVING SUPERCELLS...SHOULD A STORM BECOME ESTABLISHED.  LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS. 
ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER DARK.

...MID-SOUTH TO THE SERN STATES...
NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT LIES FROM WRN TN ACROSS NRN AL TO THE SAV RVR
VLY.  SCT TSTMS HAVE BEEN FAVORING THIS ZONE OF CONVERGENCE AND WILL
LIKELY CONCENTRATE ACROSS THE SAV RVR VLY VCNTY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND ACROSS THE TN VLY TIED TO A WEAK MCV.  VERTICAL SHEAR WAS
VERY WEAK ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE AIR MASS WAS QUITE UNSTABLE. 
THUS...ISOLD MULTICELL PULSE SEVERE STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED GIVING
LOCAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS OR HAIL.  ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
EVENING.

...CNTRL/SRN FL...
SLIGHTLY STRONGER AMBIENT BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TODAY DELAYED THE
SEA-BREEZE...BUT 19Z VSBL SATL SHOWS TSTMS BEGINNING TO INCREASE
ACROSS CNTRL/SRN FL.  GIVEN PRESENCE OF A WEAK VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PORTIONS OF THE STATE...RELATIVELY STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLD STRONG-SEVERE
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED.  STORMS SHOULD MOVE EWD TOWARD THE ECOAST
DURING THE EVENING WITH ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

..RACY.. 05/27/2006