[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 280113
SWODY1
SPC AC 280111

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0811 PM CDT SAT MAY 27 2006

VALID 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS NRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SRN HIGH PLAINS...

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
POTENT LEE-SIDE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEWD ALONG INTENSE
BAROCLINIC ZONE SITUATED FROM WRN SD THROUGH CNTRL ND THROUGH EARLY
SUNDAY. VERY HOT AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WAS PRESENT ACROSS CNTRL
DAKOTAS AND WILL FUEL NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS ND
WHERE FORCING CAN OVERCOME STRONG CAP/INHIBITION SITUATED ACROSS THE
BULK OF THE GREAT PLAINS. GIVEN STRENGTH OF LOW LEVEL JET/SHEAR AND
MASS INFLOW INTO THE DEVELOPING STORMS...SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL
AND HIGH WINDS APPEAR LIKELY. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL ALSO EXIST FOR
DISCRETE CELLS TRACKING NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.

...NERN IA/MN/WI...
STRONG STORMS HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING ACROSS WI...IN THE WAKE OF
EARLIER MCS NOW DECAYING ACROSS LAKE MI/UPPER MI. BROADLY DIFFLUENT
FLOW ALOFT AND INCREASING LIFT/WAA ACROSS THE REGION SHOULD SUPPORT
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT...OR SUSTAIN ONGOING CONVECTION OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS. NEAR SURFACE-BASED DEVELOPMENT HAS RECENTLY FORMED ON
THE NRN EDGE OF INTENSE INSTABILITY ACROSS NERN IA WHERE DIAGNOSTIC
DATA INDICATES SUFFICIENT EFFECTIVE SHEAR EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS.
DESPITE SOME INHIBITION INDICATED ON EVENING SOUNDINGS FROM
IA/MN...CONTINUED STRONG WAA OVER THIS AREA...COUPLED WITH PRESENCE
OF VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES...SHOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASING CHANCE OF
SCATTERED SEVERE HAIL OVERNIGHT...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO WHERE
LOW LEVEL FLOW IS BACKED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER MCS.

...SRN HIGH PLAINS...
WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/BACKGROUND ASCENT ROTATING OUT AHEAD OF THE LARGE
SCALE WRN TROUGH...AND STRONG DEEP-LAYER HEATING/MIXING HAVE
PROMOTED A NUMBER OF SEVERE HIGH-BASED TSTMS FROM THE RIO GRANDE NWD
TO THE TX/OK PNHDLS. BAND OF 30KT WLY MID LEVEL FLOW ATOP WEAK
SLY/VARIABLE FLOW WITHIN DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER WAS RESULTING IN
ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR A FEW SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS. HAIL AND HIGH
WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY FOR AT LEAST A FEW MORE HOURS.
IT IS POSSIBLE A SMALL MCS OR TWO COULD EVOLVE AS ACTIVITY DRIFTS
GRADUALLY EAST INTO STRONGER INSTABILITY THROUGH THE EVENING.
HOWEVER...STRONG INHIBITION...AND MASS INFLOW DIRECTED AWAY FROM THE
REGION AND INTO THE STRONGER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...SHOULD
LIMIT OVERALL SEVERE STORM COVERAGE LATER TONIGHT.

..CARBIN.. 05/28/2006