[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161953
SWODY1
SPC AC 161952

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0252 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...

COLDEST MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE SETTLING INTO THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY WHERE H5 READINGS ARE ROUGHLY -20C. 
RESULTANT THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES ARE QUITE STEEP GIVEN STRONG
BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING...LOWEST 3KM LAPSE RATES ON THE ORDER OF
8-8.5C/KM FROM MIDDLE TN...SWWD INTO NRN LA.  NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED BENEATH THIS COLD POCKET...IMMEDIATELY
AHEAD OF UPPER VORT ROTATING SEWD ACROSS MO...WHERE INCREASING NWLY
FLOW IS SUFFICIENTLY STRONG ENOUGH TO MAINTAIN MOVEMENT OF
PULSE-MULTI CELL UPDRAFTS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE LOWER
MS/TN VALLEYS SUGGEST SOME HAIL WILL DEVELOP WITHIN THE STRONGEST
UPDRAFTS BUT MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN AOB ORGANIZED
SEVERE LEVELS.

...IA...

LATEST WV IMAGERY DEPICTS A FAIRLY WELL DEFINED UPPER VORT ALONG THE
IL/IA BORDER...ROTATING SSWWD ALONG THE MS RIVER.  THIS FEATURE
APPEARS PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR RECENT INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM
NEAR LSE TO OTM.  SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION
FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING.

...SWRN U.S...

CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED WITHIN
MOIST HIGH LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE FROM NWRN AZ INTO SWRN NM.  STRONG
HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN HAS CERTAINLY AIDED RECENT UPDRAFT
DEVELOPMENT WHICH APPEARS TO BE DRIFTING SWWD TOWARD THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS.  MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD HOWEVER STRUGGLE TO
GENERATE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION WHICH MAY ULTIMATELY LIMIT
STRONGEST STORMS TO BRIEF BOUTS OF GUSTY WINDS OR SOME HAIL.

..DARROW.. 05/16/2006