[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 170058
SWODY1
SPC AC 170056

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0756 PM CDT TUE MAY 16 2006

VALID 170100Z - 171200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SIERRA NEVADAS...

MOST VIGOROUS CONVECTION AS OF 0030Z WAS OCCURRING NW OF RNO ALONG
WRN EDGE OF MID-LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  THIS
MOISTURE COUPLED WITH A DEEP AND WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WAS
CONTRIBUTING TO SBCAPES OF AROUND 600 J/KG BASED ON 17/00Z RNO
SOUNDING.  SOME MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z GIVEN THE RELATIVELY STEEP LOW
AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG EVAPORATIVE COOLING POTENTIAL
IN THE SUB-CLOUD LAYER.

...AZ...

REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT TSTMS WHICH DEVELOPED EARLIER
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE MOGOLLON RIM HAVE RECENTLY WEAKENED WITH A
CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SEWD INTO THE LOWER DESERT
FLOOR. 17/00Z TUS SOUNDING INDICATED A DEEPLY MIXED AND QUITE DRY
BOUNDARY LAYER WITH MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY.  SOME POTENTIAL
FOR STORM RE-DEVELOPMENT WILL EXIST ALONG THIS BOUNDARY INTO THE
EVENING WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

...TN/MS/AL...

LOW TOPPED CONVECTIVE LINE IS IN PROGRESS THIS EVENING ALONG
PRESSURE TROUGH/WEAK COLD FRONT FROM W OF CSV TO N OF GWO WITHIN
ENVIRONMENT OF MODEST LAPSE RATES AND WEAK INSTABILITY.  FORCING FOR
ASCENT AHEAD OF VORTICITY MAXIMUM TRANSLATING SEWD INTO THE CNTRL
GULF STATES SHOULD MAINTAIN AT LEAST SOME OF THIS ACTIVE CONVECTION
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.  THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND FURTHER
WEAKENING OF ALREADY MARGINAL INSTABILITY SHOULD PRECLUDE ANY SEVERE
THREAT...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...MIDWEST...

A COUPLE OF N-S ORIENTED TSTM BANDS ARE OCCURRING THIS EVENING FROM
ERN IA INTO CNTRL MO AND FROM SRN WI INTO WRN AND CNTRL PARTS OF IL
AHEAD OF MID-LEVEL IMPULSE DIVING SWD THROUGH THE REGION.  HERE
TOO...17/00Z SOUNDINGS INDICATED MODEST LAPSE RATES AND WEAK
INSTABILITY WHICH WILL SUPPORT ONGOING STORMS INTO THE EVENING. 
SMALL HAIL AND LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS....PRIOR TO STORMS WEAKENING WITH THE ONSET OF NOCTURNAL
COOLING.

..MEAD.. 05/17/2006