[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 120514
SWODY1
SPC AC 120512

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1212 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2006

VALID 121200Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...

UPPER PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THIS PERIOD WITH A LARGE UPPER LOW
CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION ALONG WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING
OVER THE ROCKIES. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE ALONG THE
NWRN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER RIDGE AND THROUGH THE PACIFIC NW.


...MID ATLANTIC THROUGH NERN STATES...

A SERIES OF VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING THROUGH UPPER LOW AND STEEP
MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN A
THREAT FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF VA NWD INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOST LIKELY DURING AFTERNOON AS
HEATING DESTABILIZES THE BOUNDARY LAYER. LIMITED INSTABILITY AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SUGGEST LIGHTNING ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND
WILL DIMINISH WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

...LOWER MS VALLEY AREA...

SWLY LOW LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT INTO THE LOWER MS
VALLEY AS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EWD. LIMITED BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE WILL EXIST ABOVE A PLUME OF STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES...RESULTING IN MUCAPE GENERALLY BELOW 500 J/KG. A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT
EXPECTED WEAK INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT ANY POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT.

...SRN FL...

A FEW STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG AND S OF COLD FRONT INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PARTS OF SRN FL. AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO
COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS. WEAK MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
MODEST VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
LIMITED.

...MT...

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE EWD THROUGH MT DURING THE DAY AS A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH ADVANCES EWD THROUGH SWRN CANADA. VERY MARGINAL INSTABILITY
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ADVANCE OF EWD MOVING COLD FRONT. A FEW HIGH
BASED STORMS MAY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF MT AS WELL AS ALONG AND AHEAD OF EWD
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH BY EARLY EVENING AS
THE BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS.

..DIAL/BRIGHT.. 05/12/2006