[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121246
SWODY1
SPC AC 121244

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 AM CDT FRI MAY 12 2006

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

LARGE CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION WILL MAINTAIN
RELATIVELY DRY/STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE PLAINS AND GULF COAST
STATES TODAY.  A FEW SMALL REGIONS WILL MAINTAIN A RISK OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY...BUT WEAK CAPE VALUES WILL LIMIT THE POTENTIAL
OF SEVERE STORMS.

...SOUTH FL...
SURFACE COLD FRONT IS SAGGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA
TODAY...WITH A LINE OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER SOUTH
FL.  THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHWARD AND
OFFSHORE BY MIDDAY.  VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES ARE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS...BUT WEAK CAPE AND UNFAVORABLE TIMING
SUGGEST THREAT DOES NOT WARRANT SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

...NY...
RELATIVELY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS PARTS
OF NY AND SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE TRENDS IN THIS AREA SUGGEST SUBSTANTIAL DAYTIME HEATING
WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT OF
AIR MASS SHOULD PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.

...MT...
MORNING WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN MT. 
THIS FEATURE WILL TRACK EASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MARGINAL INSTABILITY
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL MT.  SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  NO
SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

...OK/AR/MS..
MODELS TAKE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER NM/WEST TX EASTWARD AND
DE-AMPLIFY IT OVER TX THIS EVENING.  MEANWHILE...WESTERLY/NORTHERLY
SURFACE WINDS WILL PERSIST IN THIS REGION.  LITTLE IN THE WAY OF LOW
LEVEL MOISTENING IS EXPECTED...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION AND OVERALL
SEVERE THREAT. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER DARK IN
THIS AREA...BUT THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS IS RATHER LOW.

..HART.. 05/12/2006