[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061950
SWODY1
SPC AC 061949

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0249 PM CDT SAT MAY 06 2006

VALID 062000Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND SRN TX...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT OVER
THE CNTRL GULF COAST...

...CNTRL/SRN TX...

COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN EXISTS THIS AFTERNOON OWING TO MULTIPLE
MESOSCALE BOUNDARIES REMNANT FROM EARLIER CONVECTION.  MESOANALYSIS
INDICATES WEAK SURFACE LOW NEAR JCT WITH ATTENDANT COLD FRONT
EXTENDING SWWD TO W OF DRT.  THIS BOUNDARY THEN STRETCHES NEWD INTO
SERN OK...WITH ANOTHER BAROCLINIC ZONE EWD FROM THIS LOW INTO
E-CNTRL TX NEAR LFK.

HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE COUPLED WITH GLANCING INFLUENCE OF
VORTICITY/SPEED MAXIMUM TRANSLATING THROUGH NWRN TX ARE CONTRIBUTING
TO SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT ALONG FRONT FROM NEAR JCT SWWD TO
NW OF DRT.  CURRENT SAN ANTONIO VWP SHOWS SLY SURFACE WINDS VEERING
TO WLY AT 50 KTS IN THE 5-6 KM AGL.  WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
NOT PARTICULARLY STEEP...THE MODERATELY STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR AND
MLCAPES OF 1000-2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT ORGANIZED SEVERE
STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
LARGE HAIL.

STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG FRONT OVER THE EDWARDS
PLATEAU INTO THE HILL COUNTRY WITH THE WIND AND HAIL THREAT
SPREADING SEWD TOWARD THE COAST OVERNIGHT.

...CNTRL GULF COAST...

MCS OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY CONTINUES TO DECAY THIS AFTERNOON OVER
SWRN MS INTO CNTRL LA. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL STORMS HAVE RECENTLY
DEVELOPED FARTHER TO THE E OF FAR SERN MS...NEAR WEAK FRONTAL
BOUNDARY RETREATING NWD.  VWP FROM THE NEW ORLEANS AREA INDICATES
THAT WIND FIELDS ARE NOT PARTICULARLY STRONG...THOUGH THERE IS SOME
VEERING WITH HEIGHT WHICH IS CONTRIBUTING TO 40-45 KTS OF DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR.

REGIONAL RADAR LOOP SHOWS THAT MCV WHICH SUPPORTED THIS MORNING/S
MCS ORGANIZATION FARTHER TO THE W OVER THE SABINE VALLEY IS LIFTING
MORE NEWD INTO CNTRL MS.  THEREFORE...ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL HAVE TO BE DRIVEN BY WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONVERGENCE ALONG
PRE-EXISTING BOUNDARIES.  STRONGEST STORMS WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO INTO
THIS EVENING.

..MEAD.. 05/06/2006