[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 191300
SWODY1
SPC AC 191259

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0659 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

VALID 191300Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
UPR TROUGH NOW OVER THE SRN GRT BASIN SHOULD EJECT E/NE TO THE
CNTRL/SRN RCKYS LATER THIS PERIOD AS UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE OVER THE
GULF OF AK MOVES SE TO OFF THE ORE/NRN CA COAST.  SATELLITE LOOPS
SHOW SPEED MAXIMA CONTINUING TO DROP S ON WRN SIDE OF GRT BASIN
SYSTEM.  THUS...EXPECT THAT LARGE SCALE TROUGH LIKELY WILL CONTINUE
TO BE A SLOW-MOVER UNTIL EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW OVER NRN
BAJA ASSUMES A NEUTRAL OR SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE TILT UPON REACHING NM/W
TX TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY.

AT THE SURFACE...EXPECT SHALLOW WARM FRONT THAT NOW EXTENDS FROM N
OF KDRT TO NEAR KSAT TO NEAR KHOU WILL DRIFT/REDEVELOP SLOWLY N WITH
TIME.  ITS MOVEMENT WILL...HOWEVER...LIKELY BE RETARDED BY CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF ELEVATED CONVECTION N OF FRONT. FARTHER N...
SECONDARY BAROCLINIC ZONE/INVERTED TROUGH MAY ALSO REMAIN DISTINCT
...EXTENDING FROM THE EDWARDS PLATEAU/HILL COUNTRY ENE INTO E
CNTRL/NE TX.  ELONGATED LEE LOW INITIALLY OVER ERN NM SHOULD
CONSOLIDATE NE INTO THE TX PANHANDLE LATER TODAY/ TONIGHT...BUT
SHOULD REMAIN WELL REMOVED FROM TRUE WARM SECTOR AIR  OVER S
CNTRL/SE TX.

...SRN PLNS...
OVERNIGHT PERSISTENCE OF TSTMS ALONG INVERTED TROUGH ACROSS THE TX
HILL COUNTRY ENE INTO E CNTRL/NE TX SUGGESTS THAT THIS CORRIDOR WILL
REMAIN CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH THE DAY AS DEEP/MOIST SWLY FLOW
CONTINUES TO IMPINGE ON BOUNDARY BENEATH WEAKLY DIFFLUENT UPR JET. 
THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY EXPECT THAT MOST OF THE STORMS WILL BE
SLIGHTLY ELEVATED ON N SIDE OF TROUGH. WITH TIME...HOWEVER...
MODEST SURFACE HEATING MAY SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF SURFACE-BASED
ACTIVITY FROM NE OF KDRT TO NEAR KCLL...WHERE SBCAPE COULD EXCEED
1000 J/KG.  COUPLED WITH LOW LCLS AND 40-50 KT CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR
ORIENTED ROUGHLY PARALLEL TO THE TROUGH...SETUP COULD YIELD A FEW HP
SUPERCELLS WITH HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO
TORNADOES.

FARTHER W...EXPECT THAT A SECOND CONVECTIVELY-ACTIVE AXIS WILL
EVOLVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT FROM NE NM AND THE WRN
TX PANHANDLE S/SE INTO THE TX S PLAINS/PERMIAN BASIN AS SURFACE
HEATING DESTABILIZES REGION ALONG LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE. BY EVENING
THIS REGION WILL ALSO COME UNDER INFLUENCE OF RAPIDLY INCREASING
LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH EJECTING SHORTWAVE
IMPULSE.  THIS SHOULD LEAD TO ADDITIONAL...MORE WIDESPREAD STORM
DEVELOPMENT.  WITH 500 MB SSWLY FLOW INCREASING TO AOA 70 KTS...
EXPECT SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WIND.  WHILE STORM MODE
MAY FAIRLY RAPIDLY TREND TOWARD BANDS/CLUSTERS...BACKED LOW LEVEL
FLOW INVOF WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY SEGMENTS AND SEASONABLY RICH
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY SUGGEST A POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES.

THE TX STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS BY MID TO LATE
EVENING.  THESE SYSTEMS SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP PRIMARILY NEWD
...POSSIBLY AFFECTING PARTS OF OK...SW AR AND LA WITH A THREAT FOR
HAIL AND POSSIBLY HIGH WIND EARLY MONDAY.

..CORFIDI/JEWELL.. 03/19/2006