[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 190610
SWODY1
SPC AC 190608

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1208 AM CST SUN MAR 19 2006

VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX AND SRN
OK...

CORRECTED TO ADD THUNDER LINE

...SRN PLAINS...
A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL CLOSE-OFF
AND SLIDE EWD TODAY INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. A 90 KT MID-LEVEL
JET ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO PUNCH NEWD INTO
WEST TX THIS AFTERNOON. THIS COMBINED WITH WIDESPREAD LARGE-SCALE
ASCENT WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES...A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL INCREASE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTING NWD ACROSS WEST
TX. IN SPITE OF ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...SFC HEATING AND DEWPOINTS
FROM THE MID 50S TO THE LOWER 60S F IN WEST TX SHOULD RESULT IN
SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR STRONG UPDRAFT DEVELOPMENT. THE MOST
LIKELY LOCATION FOR STORM INITIATION SHOULD BE ON THE CAPROCK WHERE
LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE ENHANCED DUE TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE IN THE EVENING WITH TWO OR THREE MCS
CLUSTERS ORGANIZING AND DRIFTING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NORTH TX
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE REGION SHOW THE STRONGEST INSTABILITY
IN WCNTRL AND SW TX WITH MLCAPE VALUES REACHING 1000 TO 2000 J/KG BY
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG VERTICAL
SHEAR WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE AS SUPERCELLS DRIFT EWD INTO THE STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL
JET DURING THE EVENING HOURS. STEEPENING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR VERY LARGE HAIL WHERE THE STORMS HAVE ACCESS
TO MODERATE INSTABILITY. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ALTHOUGH STORMS SHOULD BE ELEVATED ACROSS
NORTH TX AND NEAR THE RED RIVER...ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE SEVERE THEAT SHOULD GRADUALLY LESSEN AS THE STORMS
DRIFT EWD INTO WEAKENING INSTABILITY DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

..BROYLES.. 03/19/2006