[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 190033
SWODY1
SPC AC 190031

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0631 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

VALID 190100Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF TX...

...TX/ERN NM/SRN OK...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY SHOWS A HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER-TROUGH
OVER THE WRN U.S. WITH A SUBTROPICAL PLUME OF MOISTURE EXTENDING
NEWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS. RUC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EMBEDDED IN THE SW FLOW OVER FAR WEST TX. THIS
FEATURE WILL MOVE NEWD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...SUPPORTING THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS.

SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS THE MOIST AXIS EXTENDING NWWD ACROSS
THE SWRN TX HILL COUNTRY INTO FAR WEST TX WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE
MID 60S F EXISTING NORTH AND EAST OF DEL RIO. ALTHOUGH WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION...THE AIRMASS MANAGED TO
BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE TODAY AS FAR NORTH AS INTERSTATE 10 IN
WCNTRL TX. AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE
REGION...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE ALONG A DIFFUSE
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED
NORTHEAST OF THE BIG BEND AREA. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STORMS DRIFTING EWD INTO THE GREATER
INSTABILITY ACROSS WCNTRL TX.

WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE REGION SHOW VERY STRONG SHEAR
IN PLACE SUGGESTING SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR SUPERCELLS. MID-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES MAY STEEPEN SOME OVERNIGHT AS THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DRIFTS NEWD. THIS COMBINED WITH THE STRONG SHEAR WILL MAKE LARGE
HAIL LIKELY WITH SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 10 WHERE MODERATE
INSTABILITY EXISTS AND THE STORMS ARE MORE LIKELY TO BE SFC-BASED.
ALTHOUGH SUPERCELLS WILL BE LESS LIKELY ACROSS NCNTRL TX...THE
STRONG SHEAR AND COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPS WILL MAKE HAIL POSSIBLE WITH
THE STRONGER ELEVATED STORMS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL LIKELY BE
GREATEST IN THE 04Z TO 08Z TIMEFRAME EARLY IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
MCS FORECAST TO TRACK EWD ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN TX. THE SEVERE THREAT
WITH THE MCS SHOULD BECOME MARGINAL LATE TONIGHT AS THE MCS MOVES
EWD AWAY FROM THE INSTABILITY AXIS.

..BROYLES.. 03/19/2006