[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 181943
SWODY1
SPC AC 181942

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0142 PM CST SAT MAR 18 2006

VALID 182000Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SRN
PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
LOW-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM BUBBLE HIGH OVER NWRN TX HAS MAINTAINED A
STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WELL SW INTO SWRN TX THIS AFTN.  THE CAPPED
WARM SECTOR HAS BEEN CONFINED TO AREAS S AND W OF KVCT-KSAT-KFST
LINE.  ADDITIONALLY...UNLIKE FRI...WARM CONVEYOR AND MOUNTAIN WAVE
HIGH CLOUDS ARE THICKER AND LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE SIGNIFICANTLY
LOWER THAT THOSE OBSERVED FRI AFTN.  AS A RESULT...SURFACE-BASED
TSTM INITIATION IS IN QUESTION TODAY ACROSS SWRN TX...WITH MUCH
HIGHER PROBABILITIES W/S OF THE RIO GRANDE VLY IN MEXICO.  

WATER VAPOR SUGGESTS THAT A JETLET WAS NOSING NEWD INTO NRN MEXICO
THAT WILL TRANSLATE DOWNSTREAM INTO TX THIS EVENING.  AS LARGE SCALE
LIFT APPROACHES THE REGION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/EXPAND
FROM SWRN TX AND SERN NM NEWD INTO NCNTRL TX AND OK OVERNIGHT. 
THESE STORMS WILL LARGELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE MAINLY A LARGE HAIL
THREAT...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WCNTRL-NCNTRL TX WHERE STEEPEST
MID-TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES WILL EXIST /MIDLAND 18Z SOUNDINGS
SHOWED 1017 J PER KG MUCAPE AND 66 KTS OF EFFECTIVE VERTICAL SHEAR/.
OTHERWISE...THERE WILL BE A LOW PROBABILITY OF A NEAR-SFC BASED
STORM /DAMAGING WIND GUSTS/ ALONG THE NW-SE ORIENTED FRONT ACROSS
SERN NM SEWD INTO SWRN-CNTRL TX.

..RACY.. 03/18/2006