[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 180553
SWODY1
SPC AC 180551

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1151 PM CST FRI MAR 17 2006

VALID 181200Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SERN NM AND MUCH OF W TX...

...SYNOPSIS...
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT WILL FEATURE PERSISTENT CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER
CANADIAN MARITIMES/SERN QUE REGION...RIDGE MOVING EWD FROM PLAINS
STATES TOWARD MS VALLEY...AND DEEP TROUGHING OVER WRN STATES. 
HEIGHTS WILL FALL THROUGHOUT PERIOD ACROSS ROCKIES AND CENTRAL/SRN
HIGH PLAINS...AS MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEEPENS FURTHER BETWEEN
GREAT BASIN AND NRN MEX.  IN RESPONSE...VIGOROUS WAA AND MOIST
ADVECTION REGIME WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTAL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...AND SFC
WARM FRONT NOW OVER S-CENTRAL AND FAR SW TX WILL RETREAT NWD SLOWLY.


...W TX AND SERN NM...
TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE MID-LATE AFTERNOON ALONG DRYLINE FROM
SW TX INTO SERN NM...MOVING NEWD OR ENEWD TOWARD WARM FRONT.  MAIN
THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL OVER MOST OF MOIST SECTOR...WITH DAMAGING
GUSTS ALSO LIKELY FROM MOST INTENSE CELLS.  TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL
BE MAXIMIZED INVOF WARM FRONT...EITHER FOR
1. STORMS FORMING ALONG DRYLINE AND LATER CROSSING FRONT...OR
2. ANY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS OF EITHER DRYLINE OR WARM FRONTAL ORIGIN
THAT MOVE RIGHTWARD WITHIN BAROCLINIC ZONE AND STAY SFC-BASED.

FCST SOUNDINGS ALONG WARM FRONT SUGGEST 65-75 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
AND HODOGRAPHS ENLARGED BY BACKED SFC WINDS...WITH 200-300 J/KG OF
0-1 KM SRH.  LCL WILL LOWER WITH EWD EXTENT ALONG WARM FRONT BECAUSE
OF HIGHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT.  CAPPING MAY PRECLUDE
MORE THAN ONE OR TWO DOMINANT SFC-BASED STORMS...OTHERWISE SEVERE
PROBABILITIES WOULD BE HIGHER.

AFTER DARK...EXPECT INCREASINGLY MOIST LOW LEVEL FLOW N OF WARM
FRONT AND ABOVE RELATIVELY STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.  LLJ STRENGTHENING
TO AS MUCH AS 50-55 KT WILL ENHANCE STORM-RELATIVE INFLOW IN
ELEVATED BUOYANT LAYER...RESULTING IN MUCAPES AROUND 1500
J/KG...GENERALLY DIMINISHING WITH NWD EXTENT.  EFFECTIVE SHEARS
50-60 KT INDICATE ROTATION POTENTIAL IN DISCRETE TSTMS WITH ENHANCED
LARGE HAIL POTENTIAL.  FCST SOUNDINGS ALSO SUGGEST INFLOW LAYER WILL
REMAIN SFC-BASED FOR ANY TSTMS THAT CONTINUE S OF WARM
FRONT...MAINTAINING SOME RISK OF ALL THREE SEVERE MODES.

...NRN NM AND S-CENTRAL CO...
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS MAY DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
ALONG AND JUST E OF SANGRE DE CRISTOS...AS WELL AS WRN RATON MESA
AREA...MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  MRGL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THIS ACTIVITY
TO PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL OR DAMAGING GUSTS...HOWEVER BOTH DURATION AND
COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE DUE TO LACK OF MORE ROBUST BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE.  FCST SOUNDINGS SHOW STEEP LOW-MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES OF
AROUND 8 DEG C/KM AND 60-70 KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...BUT ALSO MLCAPES
LESS THAN 300 J/KG IN MOST AREAS.

..EDWARDS/GUYER.. 03/18/2006