[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161615
SWODY1
SPC AC 161614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES TO  THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

WATER VAPOR DEPICTS WELL THE VORT CENTER NRN NM ROTATING THRU THE
BOTTOM OF ROCKIES TROUGH.  LEADING EDGE OF ASCENT WITH VORT NOW 
ACROSS ERN NM NWD INTO SERN CO AND WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD EWD
ENHANCING CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ALONG BOTH THE FRONTAL ZONE KS/CO
BORDER AND THE DRY LINE THAT WILL EXTEND SWD THRU THE TX PANHANDLE
BY MID AFTERNOON.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NWD E OF DRY LINE AND FRONT
WHICH COUPLED WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUPPORTS THE AIR MASS
BECOMING VERY UNSTABLE BY MID-AFTERNOON.  WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO
2500 J/KG AND THE CAP WEAKENING...STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON FROM WRN KS POSSIBLY
AS FAR S AS PERMIAN BASIN OF SWRN TX. WHILE THE STRONG INSTABILITY
AND 40-50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR ARGUE FOR SUPERCELLS...THE EXPECTED
HIGH BASES AND THE STRONG SLY COMPONENT WILL LIMIT VEERING
POTENTIAL...SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE LIMITED AND LIKELY IN
EARLY STAGES OF ANY SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT.

STORMS EXPECTED TO ORGANIZE INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND PROPAGATE EWD
REACHING MAX INTENSITY LATE EVENING CENTRAL KS/WRN OK...PRIOR TO
DIURNAL WEAKENING LATER TONIGHT.  WITH DCAPES AS HIGH AS 1500
J/KG...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL EXPECTED TO BE
PREDOMINANT THREAT THRU LATE EVENING.

...UPPER MID WEST...
SYNOPTIC FRONT APPEARS TO BE LOCATED FROM NWRN MN/ND BORDER SSWWD TO
SWRN NEB.  CLOUDINESS FROM THE REMNANTS OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION HAS
SLOWED SURFACE HEATING...HOWEVER MUCH OF CLOUDINESS WILL DISSIPATE
AND ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE THRU THE 80S MUCH OF AREA FROM NEB TO
SRN MN/WI LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH MID/UPPER 60 DEWPOINTS IN PLACE
AS FAR E OF FRONT AS WI/IA...AIR MASS BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
EXPECTED TO BECOME MDTLY TO VERY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES 2000 J/KG OR
GREATER FROM NEB NEWD TO SRN MN/WRN WI.

STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES BUT ONLY 6-7 C/KM MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COUPLED WITH PRIMARILY UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES...SUGGEST STORM
MODE THIS AREA MOSTLY MULTICELL/OUTFLOW DOMINATED...POSSIBLY
EVOLVING INTO FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS/S.  HOWEVER GIVEN STRONG
INSTABILITY ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE PARTICULARLY VICINITY
SURFACE BOUNDARIES. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL PRIMARY CONCERN
WITH THREAT DIMINISHING BY LATE EVENING WHEN COOLING BOUNDARY LAYER
DECOUPLES.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 06/16/2006