[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 161959
SWODY1
SPC AC 161958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT FRI JUN 16 2006

VALID 162000Z - 171200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF WRN KS...OK
PANHANDLE AND NRN TX PANHANDLE...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS
STATES TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CONTINUED TO DEPICT VORTICITY CENTER WITHIN BASE
OF ROCKIES TROUGH WAS NOW LOCATED OVER SERN CO/NERN NM.  THIS
IMPULSE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK EWD AS THE ASSOCIATED TROUGH MOVES
INTO THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  ASCENT SPREADING
EWD AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH ATOP DESTABILIZING AIR MASS ALONG/E OF
LEE TROUGH/DRY LINE WILL WEAKEN INHIBITION FOR ADDITIONAL TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INTO THE EVENING FROM W TX NNEWD INTO CENTRAL/ERN NEB. 
THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 2000+ J/KG/ AND SLY
WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER WITH SHEAR VECTORS ORIENTED NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL TEND TO FAVOR LINES/BOWING
SEGMENTS.  HOWEVER...IN ADDITION TO HAIL...SOME VERY LARGE...AND
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...BULK SHEAR VALUES UP TO 45-65 KT WILL SUPPORT
SUPERCELLS.  THUS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE LIKELY PRIMARILY FROM
SWRN NEB SWD TO THE TX PANHANDLE WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY WILL BE THE GREATEST.

STRENGTHENING SLY LLJ ACROSS SRN/CENTRAL PLAINS THIS EVENING
COMBINED WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT SPREADING EWD OVER THIS REGION 
SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR UPSCALE GROWTH INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S WITH
CONTINUED SEVERE THREAT INTO THE LATE EVENING FROM CENTRAL NEB TO
WRN OK.

...NEB NEWD TO UPPER MIDWEST...
A LEAD SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER WRN NEB IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
NEWD INTO CENTRAL/SRN MN BY LATE THIS EVENING. ASCENT WITH THIS
IMPULSE IS AIDING A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS WHICH CURRENTLY
EXTENDED FROM SERN SD /W OF FSD/ SWD INTO ERN NEB.  ADDITIONAL
DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED DOWNSTREAM OF THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM ERN NEB INTO WI AS SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTES TO MLCAPE VALUES
IN EXCESS OF 1500-2000 J/KG.  ASCENT WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NEWD
MAINTAINING ONGOING SERN SD/ERN NEB COMPLEX AS IT TRACKS NEWD
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.  HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE
PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE EVENING.

..PETERS.. 06/16/2006