[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141232
SWODY1
SPC AC 141230

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0730 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

VALID 141300Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM FAR NERN SC ACROSS ERN
NC...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NRN PLAINS
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...ERN NC/FAR NERN SC...
REMNANTS OF ALBERTO REMAIN CENTERED OVER CENTRAL SC THIS MORNING
WITH SURFACE WARM FRONT EXTENDING ENEWD INTO NERN NC.  12Z SFC
ANALYSIS INDICATES PRESSURE RISES HAVE INCREASED IN WAKE OF THIS
SYSTEM OVER THE SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. THIS SUGGESTS SYSTEM WILL
BEGIN ACCELERATING NEWD THROUGH THE MORNING INTO REGION OF STRONG
PRESSURE FALLS NOW EVIDENT NEAR FAY.  IN ADDITION...LOW LEVEL SHEAR
WILL REMAIN QUITE STRONG ALONG AND TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER/S TRACK
WITH 0-1 KM SRH IN EXCESS OF 250 M2/S2.  PRESSURE FALL/RISE COUPLET
TRANSLATING NEWD THROUGH THE DAY WILL LIKELY ENHANCE LOW LEVEL SHEAR
FURTHER NEAR THE WARM FRONT.  MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION HAS BECOME
WELL WRAPPED AROUND ALBERTO AND LIES ATOP VERY MOIST/MARINE BOUNDARY
LAYER AIR MASS...WHICH MAY BOOST INSTABILITY WITHIN WARM SECTOR. 
THUS...WITH HEATING THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON... CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN
QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES AS BANDS OF
STORMS CONTINUE DEVELOPING AND LIFT N-NEWD ACROSS ERN NC.

...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS...
ONGOING MCS WITH OCCASIONAL STRONG/SEVERE CORES WILL LIKELY BE SLOW
TO DIMINISH ALONG NOSE OF STRONG LLJ AND INVOF WEAK IMPULSE MOVING
ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS. ISOLATED LARGE HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS
ACTIVITY THROUGH THE MID MORNING AS IT SPREADS/DEVELOPS ACROSS ERN
ND/NERN SD AND INTO WRN MN/IA.

OVERNIGHT MODELS CONSISTENT IN DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /NOW OVER FAR
N-CENTRAL WY/ OVER FAR SERN MT THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF PRONOUNCED
NEGATIVELY-TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EJECTING NEWD ACROSS THE NRN
ROCKIES.  THOUGH SHEAR WILL BECOME QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE NRN
PLAINS...AND BECOME ENHANCED NEAR THE SURFACE LOW...REGION WILL
REMAIN STRONGLY CAPPED.  THIS IS ESPECIALLY TRUE NORTH OF SURFACE
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM FAR NRN IA WNWWD TO FAR SRN MT.  EXPECT
STRONG HEATING SOUTH OF THIS FRONT AND DEEP ASCENT WILL ALLOW STORMS
TO FORM OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT/NRN WY AND NEAR THE BLACK
HILLS THIS AFTERNOON.  APPEARS ACTIVITY WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS
AS THEY SPREAD ENEWD ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH THREATS OF VERY
LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES ACROSS MUCH OF ERN MT INTO NWRN
SD/SWRN ND.  STORMS WILL LIKELY CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE OR MORE LARGE
CLUSTERS DURING THE EVENING AND MAINTAIN THREATS OF DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL INTO ND LATER THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  DAMAGING WINDS
COULD BECOME PREVALENT WITH THIS MCS SHOULD DEEP ASCENT ALONG AND
AHEAD OF EWD MOVING SURFACE COLD FRONT MAINTAIN NEAR SURFACE-BASED
STORMS.

FARTHER SOUTH...HIGH-BASED STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DEVELOP WITHIN
DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING FROM PARTS OF WRN SD INTO PORTIONS OF THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY COULD
PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL AS IT SPREADS EWD AND SLOWLY
DIMINISHES OVER WRN NEB/WRN KS LATER THIS EVENING.

...LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...
INTENSE CLUSTER OF STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH MID LEVEL VORT MAX MOVING
SSWWD OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WILL LIKELY FOCUS THUNDERSTORMS
INTO THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TODAY.  12Z SOUNDING FROM BRO
INDICATES AIR MASS WILL BECOME VERY WEAKLY CAPPED AND MODERATELY
UNSTABLE ONCE SURFACE TEMPERATURES REACH THE MID 80S.  GIVEN SFC-6
KM SHEAR AROUND 30 KT...A FEW GUSTS/HAIL NEAR SEVERE LEVELS CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH STORMS SPREADING GENERALLY SWWD ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF
TX THIS MORNING/AFTERNOON.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 06/14/2006