[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 141635
SWODY1
SPC AC 141633

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1133 AM CDT WED JUN 14 2006

VALID 141630Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NRN PLAINS REGION....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN
NC....

...ERN DAKOTAS/IA TODAY...
STRONG/ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING FROM S CENTRAL ND TO SW MN
AND ERN IA.  THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE BASED NEAR 700 MB...AND
IS BEING SUPPORTED BY LOW-LEVEL WAA AND A COUPLED UPPER JET
STRUCTURE /BETWEEN THE EXIT REGION OF THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS JET
AND THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A JET STREAK MOVING SEWD OVER THE
UPPER MS VALLEY/.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
CONVECTION THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTERNOON...WHILE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS MAY ALSO OCCUR AS SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM AND LOW-LEVEL
LAPSE RATES STEEPEN.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY AND TONIGHT...
A STRONG MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER SE ID/NRN UT WILL MOVE NEWD TO ERN
MT/WRN ND BY LATE TONIGHT.  IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS WAVE...A
SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER EXTREME SE MT AND A BAROCLINIC ZONE
WILL LIFT NWD FROM SD INTO SW ND AND ERN MT.  STRONG FORCING FOR
ASCENT WILL ACCOMPANY THE EJECTING MID LEVEL WAVE.  RELATIVELY
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED IN A LARGELY N-S BAND FROM NRN
WY/S CENTRAL MT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...EITHER AS A CONTINUATION OF
THE ONGOING ERN ID STORMS...OR AS NEW DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE MID
LEVEL CLOUD BAND NOW OVER WRN WY/S CENTRAL MT. THE CONVECTION
SHOULD THEN SPREAD NEWD ACROSS ERN MT LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO WRN
ND TONIGHT.

L0W-LEVEL MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE NRN PLAINS HAS BEEN LIMITED BY
SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND SRN PLAINS...AND BOUNDARY
LAYER DEWPOINTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 56-60 F ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
INVOF THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND IN THE WARM SECTOR TO THE S. 
ADDITIONALLY...A WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER IS OVERSPREADING THE NRN
PLAINS AND PROVIDING A SUBSTANTIAL CAP.  THE MARGINAL MOISTURE AND
WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER SUGGEST THAT SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF
95-100 F WILL BE NECESSARY TO MINIMIZE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND
THAT ANY WARM SECTOR CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED. 
MEANWHILE...VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS
AND BOW ECHOES WITHIN THE LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND...WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES AND MODERATE INSTABILITY FAVORING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS AS THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.  THE TORNADO THREAT APPEARS MORE
QUESTIONABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME LINEAR CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION...AND THE MARGINAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.

FARTHER S...ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE LEE TROUGH ACROSS WRN NEB INTO NE CO/NW KS.  ANY
STORMS THAT FORM COULD DEVELOP SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES...AND BE
CAPABLE OF ISOLATED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN NC THIS AFTERNOON...
THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ALBERTO WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NEWD
AND OFFSHORE NEAR ECG BY THIS EVENING. IN THE INTERIM PERIOD...AN
INFLUX OF LOWER 70 DEWPOINTS...SURFACE HEATING IN CLOUD BREAKS...AND
STRONG L0W-LEVEL SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES ACROSS ERN NC.

..THOMPSON/TAYLOR.. 06/14/2006