[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 131636
SWODY1
SPC AC 131634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

VALID 131630Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR NRN ID AND WRN MT THROUGH
EARLY TONIGHT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR ERN
NV/WRN UT....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
WRN SD....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE
SE ATLANTIC COAST....

...NRN ID/WRN MT TODAY INTO TONIGHT...
ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ARE ONGOING INVOF THE ID PANHANDLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A NWD MOVING MID LEVEL SPEED MAX AND A N-S
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  GRADUAL DESTABILIZATION IS EXPECTED TO THE E OF
THE ONGOING STORMS IN THE RELATIVELY MOIST ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NRN ID
AND WRN MT.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-MID 50S AND
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S WILL RESULT IN MUCAPE VALUES OF
500-1500 J/KG. THIS INSTABILITY...COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER
SLY SHEAR...WILL SUPPORT A THREAT FOR BOTH SUPERCELLS AND BOW ECHOES
WITHIN A BROKEN N-S BAND ACROSS ID/WRN MT LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT. 
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.

...SE ATLANTIC COAST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
T.S. ALBERTO IS MAKING LANDFALL IN APALACHEE BAY AND WILL CONTINUE
NEWD ACROSS SE GA INTO SC BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP DRY INTRUSION S THROUGH E OF THE CIRCULATION
CENTER...AND THIS DRYING HAS LIMITED CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER NE
FL/SE GA.  THE MORE INTENSE STORMS HAVE BEEN ON THE NOSE OF THE DRY
SLOT NEAR THE SE GA COAST...IN THE AREA OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.
THERE MAY BE SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION INLAND ACROSS SE GA/SC TO
SUPPORT A TORNADO OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...ALONG AND S OF THE
SEPARATE BAROCLINIC ZONE IN SC.

...WRN SD AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
SURFACE ANALYSES SHOW STALLED FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/WRN SD NEAR
I-90...WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S ALONG AND S OF THE BOUNDARY. 
THE 12Z RAPID CITY SOUNDING WAS STRONGLY CAPPED WITH A CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 90S...BUT UPSLOPE FLOW AND SURFACE HEATING
OVER THE BLACK HILLS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE DEEP CONVECTION
BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON. ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL DRIFT EWD/SEWD
INTO AN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE VALUES OF
2500-3000 J/KG/ AND SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS.  THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE LARGE HAIL...ALONG WITH ISOLATED
DAMAGING WINDS.

...ERN NV/WRN UT THIS AFTERNOON...
THE LOW LEVELS ARE QUITE DRY ACROSS ERN NV AND UT /SURFACE DEWPOINTS
IN THE TEENS AND 20S/...BUT SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A PLUME OF MID
LEVEL MOISTURE SURGING NNEWD OVER SRN NV IN ADVANCE OF MID LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING NNEWD FROM CA.  MID LEVEL CONVECTION IS ONGOING WITHIN
THIS PLUME...AND THE CONVECTION MAY BECOME ROOTED IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON.  DEEP INVERTED-V PROFILES AND STRONG
MID LEVEL FLOW MAY SUPPORT DAMAGING WINDS WITH THE STORMS IN A BAND
ACROSS EXTREME ERN NV INTO W CENTRAL AND NW UT THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...DESPITE THE WEAK INSTABILITY.

...SE TX THIS AFTERNOON...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING SWD FROM ERN OK/AR TOWARD E TX AND LA. 
AT THE SURFACE...A NW-SE ORIENTED COLD FRONT HAS BACKED SWWD INTO N
CENTRAL AND SE TX.  CONVERGENCE AND STRONG SURFACE HEATING ALONG THE
BOUNDARY MAY SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...WITH CONVECTION EXPECTED TO PROPAGATE SWWD.  A DEEP
MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONG DOWNDRAFTS/OUTFLOW WINDS
WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..THOMPSON/PETERS.. 06/13/2006