[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 132005
SWODY1
SPC AC 132003

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0303 PM CDT TUE JUN 13 2006

VALID 132000Z - 141200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE INTERIOR NORTHWEST AND
NRN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF SD...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ...

...INTERIOR NORTHWEST/NRN ROCKIES...
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 60-70KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX
WERE SPREADING NEWD ACROSS SRN GREAT BASIN ATTM. FORCING AND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS IMPULSE WILL ACT ON INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR
MASS ACROSS ID/MT TO RESULT IN NUMEROUS SEVERE STORMS DEVELOPING
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP SLY SHEAR AND STRONG INSTABILITY
SHOULD SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND PERHAPS BOWING LINE SEGMENTS
ACROSS THE REGION WITH POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS. GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR INTENSE STORMS SHOULD EXIST ACROSS
PARTS OF NWRN MT WHERE PERSISTENT UPSLOPE FLOW HAS BROUGHT GREATER
MOISTURE WWD...AND STRONG HEATING WILL BOOST CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF
THE STRONGER FORCING THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FARTHER SOUTH...BAND OF ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE HAS INDUCED
MID-LEVEL CONVECTION ACROSS ERN NV. LIGHTNING DATA SUGGESTS THAT CG
STRIKES HAVE RECENTLY TAPERED OFF WITH THIS ACTIVITY OVER SRN NV.
HOWEVER...DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AHEAD OF THE CLOUD
BAND...COUPLED WITH HEIGHT FALLS FROM THE APPROACHING
IMPULSE...SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST ISOLATED HIGH-BASED CONVECTION
DEVELOPING NORTH THROUGH EVENING. GIVEN STRONG WIND FIELDS ALREADY
PRODUCING SFC GUSTS AROUND 40KT...EVEN WEAK INSTABILITY COULD
PROMOTE DOWNBURST GUSTS NEARING 50KT.

...SD...
ISOLATED STORMS...PROBABLY ROOTED AROUND 700MB...HAVE RECENTLY
INCREASED ACROSS NERN SD. SLOPED ASCENT IN RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
MID LEVEL JET STREAK WAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTING TO THIS DEVELOPMENT
WHERE LAPSE RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
A THREAT FOR HAIL. FARTHER SOUTHWEST... LATEST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
INHIBITION CONTINUES TO WEAKEN ALONG INVERTED TROUGH AND LEE TROUGH
WHERE HEATING AND MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW ARE EXPECTED TO PROMOTE
SURFACE-BASED STORMS IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS...AND WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS
ACROSS ERN WY...AND THEN MOVE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING.

WHILE LARGE SCALE FORCING TO SUSTAIN MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY
APPEARS LIMITED...MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTH OF SHEAR
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NUMBER OF INTENSE AND ORGANIZED
STORMS/SUPERCELLS...WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS LIKELY FROM THIS
ACTIVITY. A SMALL MCS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE AND SPREAD ESEWD ON THE
EDGE OF THE CAP THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

...SOUTHEAST COAST...
KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITHIN NERN QUADRANT OF
ALBERTO CIRCULATION REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS. A
COUPLE OF BRIEF BUT DAMAGING TORNADOES HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED
NEAR THE COAST AND THIS POTENTIAL SHOULD PERSIST ALONG THE COAST OF
SERN GA AND SC THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT UNTIL WIND FIELD WITH THE
TROPICAL SYSTEM SLOWLY SLACKENS.

...SERN TX...
CONVERGENCE ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT SETTLING SWWD ACROSS ERN TX WAS
AIDING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF HOU ATTM. MEANWHILE... A
40-50KT MID LEVEL WIND MAX WAS SPREADING SWD ATOP THE INSTABILITY
AXIS AND WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STRENGTHENING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. EXPECT A
FEW SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A
CHANCE FOR DAMAGING MICROBURSTS AND HAIL.

..CARBIN.. 06/13/2006