[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121959
SWODY1
SPC AC 121958

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0258 PM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

VALID 122000Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS INTERIOR PACIFIC NW...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FL...

...SYNOPSIS...
HIGHLY AMPLIFIED FLOW PATTERN WRN U.S. AS TROUGH CONTINUES TO
SHARPEN JUST OFFSHORE WITH RIDGE BUILDING NWD THRU ROCKIES.
DOWNSTREAM ONE S/WV TROUGH EXITS MID ATLANTIC COAST THIS EVENING
WHILE ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES SEWD INTO UPPER MS VALLEY TONIGHT.

AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS SEWD THRU CENTER OF CONUS SURFACE FRONTAL
ZONE CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM CENTRAL NC WWD ACROSS NRN AR TO OK
CONTINUES TO PUSH SLOWLY SWD.

TRACK OF INTENSIFYING T.S. ALBERTO WILL TAKE THE CENTER INLAND
POSSIBLY BY EARLY TUE NERN GULF COAST.

...CAROLINAS WWD ACROSS GA/AL...
THUNDERSTORMS SOME SEVERE HAVE DEVELOPED AHEAD OF COLD FRONT IN
REGION OF MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL
REMAIN E OF APPALACHIANS  WHERE DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 30KT ON SRN
FRINGE OF WLYS SUPPORTS MULTICELL STORM MODE.  PRIMARY THREAT OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL EXPECTED TO END SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE ELY FLOW OF MOISTURE PERSISTS ERN CO/NERN NM. 
DEEP LAYER VEERING SHEAR PROFILES AND MLCAPES RISING TO 1500 J/KG
WILL FUEL A FEW SUPERCELLS AS STORMS PROPAGATE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN
INTO PLAINS. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES.

...PAC NW...
WHILE DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS INTERIOR PAC
NW...CLOUD COVER CURRENTLY SPREADING NWD THRU ERN WA/OR IS SLOWLY
THE DESTABILIZATION PROCESS.  THUNDERSTORMS OVER OR CASCADES WILL
SLOWLY DEVELOP/PROPAGATE NEWD ACROSS ERN OR INTO SERN WA.
ADDITIONAL STORMS ALSO EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ERN
OR WILL BE IN FAVORABLE SHEAR ENVIRONMENT FOR STORM ROTATION. 
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WITH ANY
SUPERCELL ALTHOUGH BRIEF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.  WITH AIRMASS
DESTABILIZING FURTHER BY LATE AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT WILL SPREAD
ACROSS ERN WA  AND WRN MT.

...SERN U.S...
WITH T.S. ALBERTO INTENSIFYING AND HEADING FOR THE GULF COAST OF NRN
FL...POTENTIAL FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AND
POSSIBLY INCREASE TONIGHT.  FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES IN PLACE ATTM
WRN FL EXPECTED TO INCREASE FURTHER TONIGHT AS T.S. ALBERTO
APPROACHES THE COAST  BETWEEN TPA AND TLH.

..HALES.. 06/12/2006