[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121232
SWODY1
SPC AC 121231

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0731 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

VALID 121300Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE NWRN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER FL...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...PAC NW INTO THE NRN ROCKIES...
STRONG SLY FLOW ALOFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE PAC NW
TODAY...EAST OF THE CASCADES...AS 50+ KT MID LEVEL JET ROTATES
AROUND UPPER LOW NOW OFF THE NRN CA COAST.  DEEP ASCENT AHEAD OF
THIS FEATURE WILL OVERSPREAD A SURFACE FRONT/LOW WHICH IS FORECAST
TO BECOME BETTER DEFINED OVER ERN ORE/WA THROUGH THE DAY.  AIR MASS
WILL LIKELY BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS
TODAY...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY
THIS AFTERNOON.  OTHER STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EAST OF THIS
ACTIVITY OVER THE NRN ROCKIES OF WRN MT.  STRONG SHEAR IS FORECAST
TO DEVELOP WITH FORECAST SFC-6 KM SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 50 KT OVER THE
NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION AND FROM 40-45 KT ACROSS WRN MT.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT SUPERCELLS AND FAST MOVING LINES THROUGH THE EVENING.

...FL...
STRENGTHENING SLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH T.S. ALBERTO IS
ALREADY OVERSPREADING MUCH OF THE SRN/CENTRAL FL PENINSULA EARLY
THIS MORNING WITH AREA VWP/S INDICATING 2KM WINDS NEAR 30 KT.  AIR
MASS IS EXPECTED TO HEAT ALONG ERN PERIPHERY OF ALBERTO/S CLOUD
CANOPY WITH MID/UPPER 70F SURFACE DEW POINTS SUPPORTING MODERATE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY OVER MUCH OF SRN AND CENTRAL FL.  GIVEN
INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR...ISOLATED TORNADOES AND DAMAGING WINDS
MAY ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS TODAY.  IN ADDITION...SURFACE THETA-E
GRADIENT WAS EVIDENT EXTENDING FROM W-CENTRAL INTO NERN FL THIS
MORNING WHICH MAY INCREASE LOW LEVEL SHEAR AND ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL
IF IT SURVIVES DIURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING.  TORNADO THREAT SHOULD
INCREASE LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT AS PRIMARY CIRCULATION CENTER
BECOMES BETTER DEFINED AND APPROACHES THE BIG BEND REGION AS
FORECAST BY LATEST TPC GUIDANCE.

...CAROLINAS...
STRONG SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SAGGING SSEWD ACROSS NC AND
THE SRN APPALACHIANS TODAY WITH LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING
STRONG HEATING IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.  REGION REMAINS UNDER SRN
FRINGE OF MODERATE WLY FLOW ALOFT WITH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
MAINTAINING 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  THIS WILL PROVE SUFFICIENT
FOR ORGANIZED LINES AND CLUSTERS OF STORMS...AND POSSIBLY A
SUPERCELL OR TWO...AS ACTIVITY INCREASES ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD ACCOMPANY STRONGER STORMS AS THEY TRACK
EWD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
RIDGING ALOFT WILL BUILD ACROSS THE SRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS TODAY AS MID/UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ALONG THE WEST
COAST. THIS WILL LIMIT ASCENT AND WEAKEN SHEAR AS COMPARED TO THE
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN
ADEQUATE FOR MODERATE INSTABILITY OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AS SSELY
UPSLOPE FLOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE DAY. IN ADDITION...FORECAST
SOUNDINGS MAINTAIN 25-35 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR.  THIS SHOULD SUPPORT AT
LEAST SOME ORGANIZATION TO STORMS AS THEY DRIFT SSEWD OFF HIGHER
TERRAIN AND ACROSS LOWER ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE EVENING.  LARGE HAIL
AND DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS.

..EVANS/JEWELL.. 06/12/2006