[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 121636
SWODY1
SPC AC 121635

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1135 AM CDT MON JUN 12 2006

VALID 121630Z - 131200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS
THE INTERIOR NW/NRN ROCKIES....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS
CENTRAL/N FL....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS SC/NC....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS ERN CO/NE NM....

...INTERIOR NW/NRN ROCKIES AREA THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...

A DEEP MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE PAC COAST...WITH EMBEDDED
LOWS NEAR VANCOUVER AND WSW OF SFO...WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY
TOMORROW WITH ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS.  THE VANCOUVER LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO ROTATE SWWD AND THE LOW WSW OF SFO SHOULD EVOLVE INTO
MORE OF AN OPEN WAVE WITH TIME.  E OF THE TROUGH AXIS...A BELT OF
45-60 KT SLY MID LEVEL FLOW WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL SPREAD
NWD FROM CENTRAL CA TO ERN WA/ORE AND ID BY LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT.


IN THE LOW LEVELS...A SURFACE LOW AND N-S BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL
PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS ERN ORE/WA
NWD INTO THE ID PANHANDLE AND WRN MT.  SURFACE ANALYSES AND 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR AFTERNOON MUCAPE VALUES OF 500-1500
J/KG WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 40S TO
MID 50S.  THIS INSTABILITY WILL COMBINE WITH STRONG SLY DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL SHEAR TO SUPPORT LONG-LIVED SUPERCELLS
AND BOWING SEGMENTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  FORECAST HODOGRAPHS AND OBSERVED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE VALUES
ALSO SUGGEST THAT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE. 

...FL AREA THROUGH TONIGHT...
TROPICAL STORM ALBERTO MAY REACH MINIMAL HURRICANE STRENGTH BEFORE
MAKING LANDFALL TOMORROW ALONG THE FL BIG BEND /SEE LATEST
STATEMENTS FROM NHC FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION/.  E OF THE CYCLONE
CENTER...A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /WITH 76-78 F DEWPOINTS/ IS
OVERSPREADING THE CENTRAL AND SRN FL PENINSULA.  THIS MOISTURE IS
CONTRIBUTING TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR CELLULAR STORMS OVER
CENTRAL FL...WHILE LOW-MID LEVEL SHEAR IS STRONG OVER CENTRAL AND W
CENTRAL FL /0-3 KM SRH OF 250-300 M2/S2/.  THE RICHER MOISTURE AND
STRONGER SHEAR SHOULD DEVELOP SLOWLY NWD WITH TIME...WITH THE THREAT
FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS/TORNADOES FOCUSED MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL FL
TODAY AND POTENTIALLY INTO N FL OVERNIGHT.

...CAROLINAS THIS AFTERNOON...
A MID LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ESEWD FROM THE OH VALLEY/APPALACHIANS
TOWARD VA/NC.  ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF THIS WAVE...ALONG WITH DAYTIME
HEATING AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG A FRONT ACROSS NC...WILL
PROVIDE A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
AFTERNOON.  THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY NARROW CORRIDOR ALONG THE
SURFACE FRONT WHERE THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW/SHEAR WILL OVERLAP
THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR...WHICH WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF STORMS WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON.

...ERN CO AREA...
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BACKED WWD INTO ERN CO IN A POST-FRONTAL
UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME.  MEANWHILE...LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES CONTINUE
OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...DOWNSTREAM FROM THE DEEP PAC COAST TROUGH.  A
WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SRN UT/NRN AZ SHOULD REACH THE
FRONT RANGE OF CO BY EARLY TONIGHT...THOUGH AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE
INITIATION SHOULD BE TIED STRONGLY TO THE W EDGE OF THE MOISTURE AND
THE HIGH TERRAIN.  FORECAST WIND PROFILES/VERTICAL SHEAR APPEAR TO
BE AT LEAST MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A FEW STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW GUSTS WITH
STORMS MOVING SLOWLY SSEWD.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/12/2006