[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111636
SWODY1
SPC AC 111634

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1134 AM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

VALID 111630Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING FROM SE
KS/NE OK EWD TO NC....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS....

...SE KS/NE OK EWD TO THE CAROLINAS FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
TONIGHT...

THE BELT OF LARGELY ZONAL FLOW FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE
OH VALLEY WILL TRANSITION TO A MORE AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN RESPONSE TO
LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES OVER THE HIGH PLAINS...AND DOWNSTREAM
TROUGH AMPLIFICATION INVOF THE OH VALLEY.  AN EMBEDDED MID LEVEL
TROUGH OVER SRN MN/IA WILL MOVE ESEWD TOWARD INDIANA BY LATE TONIGHT
WHILE A CONVECTIVELY INDUCED VORTICITY MAXIMUM EJECTS EWD FROM IL TO
KY THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING NC OVERNIGHT.  THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE
FRONT...REPRESENTING A COMBINATION OF THE PRIMARY BAROCLINIC ZONE
AND SEVERAL CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...EXTENDS FROM NRN OK/AR ENEWD INTO
CENTRAL KY...AND THEN ESEWD TO NE NC. A SEPARATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
NEAR THE NC/SC BORDER WILL LIKELY DISSIPATE THIS AFTERNOON IN
RESPONSE TO STRONG SURFACE HEATING.  CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD
BE FOCUSED ALONG THE SURFACE BOUNDARIES AND NEAR THE MCV MOVING
TOWARD KY THIS AFTERNOON.

MORNING SOUNDINGS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR MLCAPE NEAR 1500 J/KG ALONG
THE EFFECTIVE SURFACE BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON WITH TEMPERATURES AOA
90 F AND DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S.  THE STRONGER MID LEVEL FLOW
REMAINS LARGELY N OF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT THE
MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE MULTICELL CLUSTERS. A POSSIBLE
EXCEPTION WILL BE ALONG THE FRONT IN NC WHICH WILL BE CO-LOCATED
WITH THE SRN FRINGE OF THE 30-40 KT MIDLEVEL WNWLY FLOW...WHERE
MARGINAL SUPERCELL TYPE STORMS MAY OCCUR.  DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS
AND ISOLATED LARGE HAIL SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS FROM
MID-LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE LATE EVENING HOURS.  THE WWD EXTENT OF
THE SEVERE THREAT IS LESS CERTAIN ACROSS KS/OK DUE TO STRONGER
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. 

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW IS ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
CO/WY...WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS RANGE FROM THE MID 40S TO
LOWER 50S.  GIVEN THE TENDENCY FOR LARGE SCALE HEIGHT RISES OVER
THIS AREA...CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL LIKELY BE TIED STRONGLY TO
THE FRONT IN CO...AND PERHAPS THE CHEYENNE AND PALMER RIDGES BY LATE
AFTERNOON.  THE ENVIRONMENT WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY SUFFICIENT
VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELLS /STRONGER WITH NWD EXTENT FROM CO INTO
WY/ AND A RELATIVELY DEEP SURFACE MIXED LAYER...WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT
A THREAT FOR AT LEAST ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. 
STORMS MAY PROPAGATE EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS ON CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW
INTO EARLY TONIGHT...WITH CONVECTION AIDED BY A WEAK SLY/SELY LLJ.

..THOMPSON/CROSBIE.. 06/11/2006