[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 111957
SWODY1
SPC AC 111956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SUN JUN 11 2006

VALID 112000Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SE KS/NE OK EWD TO CAROLINAS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE IS BUILDING OVER ROCKIES AS TROUGH DEEPENS OFF W COAST.
DOWNSTREAM S/WV TROUGH CROSSING MID MS RIVER VALLEY PRECEEDED BY MCV
NEAR EVV.  BAND OF MDT WLYS EXTENDS FROM CENTRAL/NRN HIGH PLAINS
ACROSS MID MS RIVER TO MID ATLANTIC COAST.

COMBINATION OF BAROCLINIC AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXTENDS
FROM VICINITY NC/VA BORDER WNWWD ACROSS KY AND THEN WWD TO ALONG
OK/KS BORDER. VERY WARM AND MDTLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS DEVELOPING TO S 
OF BOUNDARIES WITH LITTLE REMAINING CIN E OF MS RIVER.

...TN VALLEY TO MID ATLANTIC STATES...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND INTENSITY ALONG AND S OF
BOUNDARIES FROM NC TO KY REMAINDER OF AFTERNOON. GENERALLY 30-40KT
OF SHEAR THIS REGION COUPLED WITH MLCAPES TO 2000 J/KG SUPPORT
CLUSTERS OF STRONG/SEVERE STORMS AS WELL AS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS. 
PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND/HAIL WITH A LOW PROBABILITY OF
TORNADOES WITH SUPERCELLS THAT CAN DEVELOP.  MORE CONCENTRATED
SEVERE POTENTIAL EXISTS JUST AHEAD OF THE MCV NOW MOVING ESEWD
ACROSS WRN KY WHERE SHEAR IS GREATEST AND SHORT LINES/BOWS COULD
DEVELOP.

...MID MS VALLEY WWD TO SRN KS/NERN OK...
E/W BOUNDARY WILL BE FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF AT LEAST ISOLATED
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  SOMEWHAT WEAKER BUT SUFFICIENT SHEAR ALONG
THIS PORTION OF BOUNDARIES FOR PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL STORMS.  WITH
MOISTURE POOLING VICINITY BOUNDARY MLCAPES CLIMBING ABOVE 2000 J/KG.
 WEAKENING CAP FOR NEAR SURFACE BASED STORM DEVELOPMENT AFTER 21Z
WITH LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS.

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
UPSLOPE E/SELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ERN CO/SERN WY. STRONG HEATING HAS
ABOUT ELIMINATED CIN ALONG AND JUST E OF HIGHER TERRAIN CO/SERN WY. 
WITH 35-40KT OF SHEAR SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY AS STORMS PROPAGATE
E/SE OFF HIGHER TERRAIN.  LARGE HAIL/DOWNBURSTS WILL BE PRIMARY
THREAT UNTIL LATE EVENING...AFTER WHICH DIURNAL COOLING WILL LEAD TO
WEAKENING TREND.

..HALES.. 06/11/2006