[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 101957
SWODY1
SPC AC 101956

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0256 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

VALID 102000Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL/NRN HIGH
PLAINS SEWD INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY....

...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN WY AND HAS
CONTRIBUTED TO STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS PORTIONS OF WY/EXTREME WRN
NEB...REFERENCE WW 457. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED INTO THE 80S AND
THESE TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH DEWPOINTS FROM 45-50 HAS RESULTED
IN MLCAPE VALUES NEAR 1000 J/KG. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPPER TROUGH ARE RESULTING IN FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS. ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...INVERTED-V
PROFILES IN THE LOWER 300 MB SUGGEST DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE THE
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...WHILE THE STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ALSO SUPPORT HAIL. OUTFLOWS ARE LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS
THIS EVENING AND THEN MOVE ESEWD ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWRN NEB AND
NWRN KS.

...ERN KS EWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY...
AT 19Z...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM CENTRAL KS EWD
ACROSS NRN MO...THEN SEWD THROUGH KY INTO NC. A WEAK SURFACE WAVE
WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT WEST OF HUT...WHILE WEAK ELEVATED
CONVECTION WAS LOCATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NERN KS AND NRN MO.
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND MASS CONVERGENCE ARE ALSO MAXIMIZED NEAR THIS
BOUNDARY AND MLCAPES SOUTH OF THE ELEVATED CONVECTION ARE NEARING
2000 J/KG. IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THE ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL
EVENTUALLY BECOME ROOTED INTO THE BOUNDARY LAYER...OR IF STORMS WILL
DEVELOP ON THE SRN EDGE OF THE CONVECTION WHERE CONVERGENCE WOULD BE
THE STRONGEST DUE TO DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. IN EITHER CASE...SURFACE
BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN
KS/NRN MO BY LATE AFTERNOON AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WRN
KS...EVIDENT ON THE WV IMAGERY...MOVES ESEWD INTO THE AREA. THE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL... THOUGH THE
WIND THREAT SHOULD INCREASE THIS EVENING AS THE DOWNDRAFTS
CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS AND TRACK SEWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY.

OTHER STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT FROM SRN IL SEWD INTO
ERN TN. DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 30 KT AND MLCAPES NEAR 2000 J/KG
WILL SUPPORT HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WITH A FEW OF THESE STORMS.

..IMY.. 06/10/2006