[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 110102
SWODY1
SPC AC 110100

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0800 PM CDT SAT JUN 10 2006

VALID 110100Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TONIGHT FROM THE CNTRL PLAINS
INTO PARTS OF THE S CNTRL APPALACHIANS....

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...
A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE IS EVIDENT IN SURFACE ANALYSIS...EXTENDING
IN EAST-WEST FASHION ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S...FROM THE NORTH CENTRAL
ROCKIES/PLAINS THROUGH THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  THIS FEATURE HAS BECOME THE FOCUS FOR
MODERATE TO STRONG CONDITIONAL AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY... BENEATH
A BELT OF MODERATE WESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW...ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER STATES. 
AIDED BY MID/UPPER FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ASSOCIATED
WITH EMBEDDED PERTURBATIONS...SCATTERED AREAS OF ONGOING VIGOROUS
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE EVOLVING UPSCALE
INTO ONE OR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE PROGRESSING
EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AND STRONGEST
CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH A SOUTHERLY CENTRAL PLAINS LOW-LEVEL JET
APPEARS TO BE FOCUSED ALONG THE INTERSTATE 70 CORRIDOR WEST OF
TOPEKA INTO THE RUSSELL KS AREA...WHERE NEW STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
BY 02-03Z.  CONVECTION SPREADING EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS MAY
EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THIS ACTIVITY...BEFORE BULK OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPS EASTWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSOURI/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON
NOSE OF VEERING LOW-LEVEL JET.

HIGHEST PRECIPITABLE WATER CONTENT AIR /1.50 TO 1.75 IN/ IS 
CONCENTRATED ALONG FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THIS REGION...AND IS
CONTRIBUTING TO MOST UNSTABLE CAPE OF 2000 TO 4000 J/KG.  THIS WILL
SUPPORT VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS WITH HEAVY RAIN...AND...THOUGH LAPSE RATES
ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STEEP...RISK OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
WILL PROBABLY CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.  UNSATURATED
LOW/MID-LEVELS EVIDENT IN EVENING RAOBS ALSO INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR
STRONG DOWNDRAFTS AND DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT SURFACE COLD POOL
WITH DAMAGING WINDS.

STORMS ALREADY ONGOING ACROSS MISSOURI...NEAR/SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI
RIVER...MAY CONTINUE TO POSE A HAIL/GUSTY WIND THREAT AS THEY
DEVELOP SOUTHEASTWARD IN CONFLUENT REGIME ALONG FRONTAL ZONE INTO
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS/INDIANA AND KENTUCKY.  SEVERE EVENTS MAY BE A BIT
MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THAN FARTHER UPSTREAM...AS ENVIRONMENT ACROSS
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS REMAINS A BIT
DRIER/LESS UNSTABLE.

..KERR.. 06/11/2006