[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061245
SWODY1
SPC AC 061243

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0743 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

VALID 061300Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPR MS VLY TO THE
OZARKS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND
ADJACENT HI PLNS...

...SYNOPSIS...
SWRN STATES RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD NE ACROSS THE RCKYS THIS PERIOD
IN WAKE OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE UPR MS VLY/UPR GRT LKS. 
DEEP UPR LOW SHOULD CONTINUE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE
CAROLINAS...MAINTAINING DEEP NLY COMPONENT TO FLOW OVER THE MS
VLY/ERN PLNS.

AT THE SURFACE...DIFFUSE LOW WILL EDGE SLOWLY E INTO WRN ONTARIO AS
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES SLOWLY E/SE ACROSS THE UPR MS/LWR MO
VLYS...AND S ACROSS THE SRN PLNS.

...UPR MS VLY TO OZARKS...
COLD FRONT EXTENDING S AND SW FROM ONTARIO LOW EXPECTED TO BE THE
FOCUS FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORM DEVELOPMENT FROM THE UPR MS
VLY TO THE OZARKS AND ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLNS.  MODERATE /30-40
KT/ WNW TO NNWLY MID LEVEL FLOW PERPENDICULAR TO BOUNDARY WILL
SUPPLY SUFFICIENT DEEP SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED ACTIVITY/POSSIBLE
SUPERCELLS.

COLDER AIR ALOFT AND DEEPER CYCLONIC FLOW SUGGEST THAT THE
DEVELOPMENT WILL FIRST OCCUR OVER UPR MI/WI.  LOW LEVEL
DESTABILIZATION IN WAKE OF ON-GOING ACTIVITY SHOULD THEN FOSTER
INITIATION SWD ACROSS ERN IA/NW IL AND NRN MO. HAIL AND LOCALLY
DAMAGING WIND SHOULD BE THE MAIN SEVERE THREATS.  DEPENDING ON STORM
MODE...DEGREE OF DEEP DIRECTIONAL SHEAR SUGGESTS THAT SETUP MAY...
HOWEVER...ALSO BECOME MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF TORNADOES IN ERN
IA/SW WI/NW IL.

FARTHER S ALONG FRONT...LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED TO
BE SOMEWHAT WEAKER IN WAKE OF APPARENT MCV NOW OVER NE OK.  THE MCV
SHOULD CONTINUE SE INTO AR AS AMPLIFYING RIDGE EDGES E INTO THE
CNTRL/NRN PLNS.  SURFACE HEATING WILL...HOWEVER...CONTRIBUTE TO
STRONG INSTABILITY /SBCAPE AOA 2500 J PER KG/ IN MOIST AXIS
ALONG/AHEAD OF COLD FRONT OVER PARTS OF OK/SE KS AND THE WRN OZARKS.
 SHOULD FRONTAL UPLIFT BE SUFFICIENT TO OVERCOME CAP...RESULTING
STORMS COULD FORM A SMALL CLUSTER YIELDING VERY LARGE HAIL AND HIGH
WIND.

...CNTRL/SRN RCKYS AND ADJACENT HI PLNS...
AS COLD FRONT SETTLES INTO THE SRN PLNS...AXIS OF MOIST POST-FRONTAL
FLOW WILL SPREAD W TO THE ERN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL RCKYS.  COUPLED
WITH STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND WEAK UPSLOPE COMPONENT...STORMS
SHOULD FORM OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND THEN DRIFT SLOWLY SSE TO THE WRN
EDGE OF THE HI PLNS.  WEAK DEEP SHEAR NEAR UPR RIDGE AXIS SHOULD
FAVOR PULSE/MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND/HAIL.  

FARTHER S...WEAKENING FRONT AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MAY ALSO BE THE
FOCUS FOR ISOLATED HIGH-BASED STORMS WITH HIGH WIND POTENTIAL IN THE
IN ERN NM AND THE TX S PLNS.

...SRN PLATEAU...
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM NRN SONORA MCS WILL SPREAD NW ACROSS MUCH OF
AZ AND WRN PARTS OF THE SRN PLATEAU TODAY AS LOW LEVEL STORM OUTFLOW
REACHES THE AZ DESERTS.  THIS PATTERN SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED
DIURNAL STORM COVERAGE OVER THE REGION.  MODERATE SELY MID-LEVEL
FLOW WILL FAVOR NWD PROPAGATION AND POSSIBLE UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT OF
NRN MEXICAN MOUNTAIN STORMS INTO THE LWR DESERTS OF AZ THIS
EVENING...WHERE RESULTING CLUSTER COULD YIELD ISOLD DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.

..CORFIDI/TAYLOR.. 06/06/2006