[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 061627
SWODY1
SPC AC 061626

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1126 AM CDT TUE JUN 06 2006

VALID 061630Z - 071200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN GREAT LAKES SWD TO ERN
PORTIONS OF SRN PLAINS...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SOUTHERN AZ...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF ERN CO/NERN NM...

...SYNOPSIS...

LARGE WRN RIDGE BUILDS NWD INTO NRN ROCKIES WITH CENTER OF
CIRCULATION REMAINING OVER SRN CO. COLD UPPER LOW CAROLINA COAST 
MOVES SLOWLY EWD WHILE A WEAK LOW OFF BAJA CONTINUES TO DRIFT NNWWD
TO SW OF SAN BY WED AM.

S/WV TROUGH INITIALLY MN CONTINUES EWD ACROSS WRN LAKES WHILE ERN
PAC S/W TROUGH APPROACHES PAC NW LATE IN FORECAST PERIOD.

AT THE SURFACE A FRONTAL SYSTEM FOLLOWED BY MUCH DRIER AIR EXTENDS
FROM NEAR MN/WI BORDER SWWD INTO CENTRAL KS. A PRONOUNCED BUT
RELATIVELY NARROW N/S MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDS FROM OK NNEWD INTO WRN
GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF FRONT.

OVERNIGHT ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HAS WORKED INTO SRN AZ AS
UNDER A MDT SELY WIND REGIME.


...WRN GREAT LAKES SWD THRU LOWER MO VALLEY INTO ERN PORTION SRN
PLAINS...
LOW/MID LEVEL WIND FIELDS FORECASTED TO WEAKEN MUCH OF THIS REGION
DURING AFTERNOON AHEAD OF COLD FRONT.  HOWEVER FRONTAL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE SUFFICIENT TO INITIATE STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BY MAX
HEATING FROM WI SWD INTO MO. WITH MLCAPES CLIMBING TO AOA 2000 J/K G
AS SURFACE TEMPS WARM THRU THE 80S... ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30-35 KT...SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON.
MODE SHOULD BE PRIMARILY MULTICELL GIVEN WEAK LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...HOWEVER WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE
LIKELY.  LARGE HAIL AND LOCALIZED WET MICRO BURST WOULD BE MOST
LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH ANY SUPERCELL.

WELL DEFINED MCV NERN OK MOVING SWD AROUND 25KT AND WITH A VERY
MOIST AIR MASS DEVELOPING WITH DAYTIME HEATING COULD TAP INTO
BOUNDARY LAYER BY MID AFTERNOON SERN OK. WITH MLCAPES ABOVE 2000
J/KG THIS WOULD RESULT IN AN INCREASED SEVERE THREAT SWD INTO NERN
TX/NWRN LA PRIOR TO WEAKENING AFTER SUNSET.

...SRN AZ...
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS INCREASED SRN HALF OF AZ OVERNIGHT AS
SELY FLOW REGIME IS WELL ESTABLISHED  TO SW OF CO UPPER HIGH
CIRCULATION.  STEEP LAPSE RATES REMAIN AND WITH STRONG HEATING
MLCAPES WILL CLIMB BY MIDAFTERNOON TO AOA 1000 J/KG S OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.  WITH HIGH BASED CONVECTION...DOWNDRAFT CAPES ABOVE 1500
J/KG ARE INDICATED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE
BY MID AFTERNOON OVER HIGHER TERRAIN SRN AZ.  AND THEN WITH 30-35 KT
SELY 500MB FLOW...STORMS WILL QUICKLY PROPAGATE INTO ADJACENT DESERT
VALLEYS.  POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING WINDS IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A MORE ORGANIZED HABOOB INTO SCENTRAL DESERTS VALLEYS
BY THIS EVENING.

...ESLOPES CENTRAL ROCKIES...
ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS UPPER HIGH SHIFTS
SLOWLY EWD...THE LOW LEVEL ELY FLOW IS MAINTAINING A RELATIVELY
MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER WWD TO FRONT RANGE.  STRONG HEATING WILL RESULT
IN A DEEPLY MIXED AIR MASS WITH MLCAPES TO 1500 J/KG.  STORMS SHOULD
INITIATE ALONG AND JUST E OF FRONT RANGE BY MID AFTERNOON...WITH
PRIMARILY A PULSE SEVERE THREAT DEVELOPING.  HIGH BASED STORMS WILL
INCLUDE NOT ONLY LARGE HAIL BUT A MICRO BURST THREAT UNTIL SUNSET.
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD HOLD FAIRLY CLOSE TO HIGHER TERRAIN BOTH IN ERN
CO AND NERN NM WITH THE VERY WEAK STEERING WINDS.

..HALES/GUYER.. 06/06/2006