[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291243
SWODY1
SPC AC 291242

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0742 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

VALID 291300Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES....

...SYNOPSIS...
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS RE-ESTABLISHING ITSELF FROM THE
CENTRAL INTERMOUNTAIN REGION EWD ACROSS MUCH OF THE PLAINS AND MS
VALLEY INTO THE GULF COAST STATES.  THIS PLACES MAIN BAND OF
WESTERLIES  FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST STATES NEWD INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES AND EXTREME NRN PLAINS THEN SEWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
NEW ENGLAND.  SEVERAL MINOR SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL BE EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE FLOW FROM MT ENEWD OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS ND THEN SEWD
INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES DURING THE PERIOD.  LATE AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON ANTICYCLONIC
SIDE OF THE RIDGE AXIS ACROSS THE UPR MS VALLEY AND UPR GREAT LAKES
WHERE ENHANCED UVVS AND SHEAR WILL TAKE PLACE.

...UPR MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...

TWO ROUNDS OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF MN INTO WI LAYING OUT SEVERAL CONVECTIVELY
INDUCED BOUNDARIES ACROSS THE REGION.  NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
MOVE FROM ERN MT THRU ND INTO NERN MN TONIGHT AFTER 30/00Z.  LOW
LEVEL FLOW OF 35-40 KT IS EXPECTED FROM SWRN KS INTO SERN ND WHICH
SHOULD PLAY IN INITIATION OF NEW CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF ERN ND
THIS EVENING.  THIS COUPLED WITH 45-55 KT OF WLY/NWLY MID LEVEL FLOW
WILL ENHANCE DEEP LAYER SHEAR SUPPORTIVE FOR UPDRAFTS THAT WILL
BECOME AN MCS OVER ERN ND INTO NWRN MN BY EARLY TONIGHT.  AIR MASS
ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL BE VERY HOT AND MOIST TODAY AS DEW POINTS
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPR 60S/LOW 70S S OF OLD CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY
ACROSS EAST CENTRAL ND INTO NWRN WI.  MLCAPES OF 2500-3000 J/KG WITH
DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF 45-50 KT FORMULATES SIMILAR THERMODYNAMIC AND
KINEMATIC PROFILE AS WAS IN PLACE OVER MN THIS MORNING.

THUS...EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT FROM ERN ND ESEWD INTO NRN WI AND UPR MI/NRN LWR
MI WITH MAIN THREAT BEING DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL.

...TN VALLEY REGION INTO THE CAROLINAS...

NAM AND SREF MODELS INDICATE MID LEVEL TROUGH SHIFTS SEWD FROM KY/TN
INTO THE CAROLINAS DURING THE PERIOD.  NUMEROUS SEVERE REPORTS
OCCURRED YESTERDAY IN THIS SAME REGIME AS ONE TROUGH MOVED THROUGH
SRN NEW ENGLAND/MID ATLANTIC STATES AND ANOTHER FEATURE AIDED IN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN FAVORABLE SEA BREEZE AREA.  TROUGHING
COMBINED WITH HEATING OF WARM MOIST AIR MASS WILL PROVIDE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMICS AND UVVS FOR ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD PULSE
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS REGION. STEEP SFC-3KM LAPSE RATES
RESULTING IN TEMP/DEW POINT SPREAD OF 25-30 DEG F INDICATE THAT SOME
OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD PRODUCE WET MICRO BURSTS/DAMAGING WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...AREAS OF AZ INTO EXTREME SERN NV...

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ONCE AGAIN DEPICTS MID/UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE AZ/NM BORDER INTO WRN NM.  THIS IS
PULLING NWD MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MEXICO INTO NM.  THUS...NLY MID
LEVEL FLOW IN VICINITY OF MOGOLLON RIM ALONG WITH PRESENCE OF
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL ONCE AGAIN PROVIDE FAVORABLE SHEAR AND
THERMODYNAMICS FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
TONIGHT.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/29/2006