[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 291617
SWODY1
SPC AC 291615

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1115 AM CDT SAT JUL 29 2006

VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN
PLAINS INTO UPSTATE NY...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE CENTRAL/ERN
CAROLINAS...

...NRN PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND...
BROAD AREA OF MODEST NWLY FLOW ALOFT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG
PERIPHERY OF LARGE UPPER RIDGE ACROSS THE NRN/NERN TIER OF THE U.S.
TODAY. AT THE SURFACE...SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING ACROSS
SRN QUEBEC/ONTARIO WILL SAG SEWD INTO NRN NEW ENGLAND/LOWER GREAT
LAKES THIS AFTERNOON.  MIDDLE PORTION OF THIS FRONT HAS BEEN
REINFORCED BY SEVERAL MCSS OVER THE CENTRAL/WRN GREAT LAKES AND NRN
MS RIVER VALLEY AND CONTINUES TO PUSH SWD TOWARDS NRN IL/SRN LOWER
MI AT 16Z...WHILE WRN END REMAINS STALLED INTO SWRN MN AND E-W
ACROSS FAR NRN SD.  LOCATION OF THIS BOUNDARY WILL BE CRUCIAL TO
AFTERNOON SEVERE THREAT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT
LAKES...AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR DIMINISHES CONSIDERABLY SOUTH OF THE
GREAT LAKES.  APPEARS MORE THAN REASONABLE TO EXPECT INCREASE IN
SEVERE THREAT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL/SERN LOWER MI AND
SWRN ONTARIO DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AS CAP WEAKENS DUE TO
HEATING.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE
MARGINAL BUT STILL SUFFICIENT FOR SOME LINEAR/CLUSTER ORGANIZATION
IF STORMS CAN INCREASE OVER THIS REGION WITH SFC-6 KM SHEAR AROUND
20 KT. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE AND ORGANIZE INTO
LINES/CLUSTERS NEAR THE COLD FRONT APPROACHING UPSTATE NY AND
POSSIBLY NRN PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON WHERE AIR MASS
REMAINS QUITE MOIST DESPITE PASSAGE OF WEAK FRONT YESTERDAY.  HAVE
ADJUSTED SLGT RISK TO ACCOUNT FOR INCREASED SEVERE THREAT ALONG THIS
PORTION OF THE FRONT...PRIMARILY IN THE FORM OF DAMAGING WINDS.

MORE ROBUST DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING INTO
ERN PORTIONS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND NRN MS RIVER VALLEY WHERE VERY
STRONG HEATING WITHIN WARM SECTOR AND FOCUSED ASCENT ALONG SLY LLJ
OCCUR NEAR THE FRONT.  LARGE SCALE FOCUS WILL REMAIN
LIMITED...SUGGESTING DEVELOPMENT WILL NEED TO BE DRIVEN BY STRONG
HEATING AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR STALLED BOUNDARY. 
REGARDLESS...MODELS IN AGREEMENT IN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN
STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER SERN ND/NERN SD/WRN MN BY 00Z. 
SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG...CONSIDERING DEGREE OF INSTABILITY
FORECAST...AND WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A FEW TORNADOES IF LOWER
70F SURFACE DEW POINTS CAN SURVIVE STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER MIXING. 
THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY BUILD INTO ONE OR MORE MCSS DURING THE
EVENING WHICH MOVE ESEWD OVERNIGHT.  PATTERN REMAINS QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR ANOTHER BOW ECHO-MCS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NRN
MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE WRN GREAT LAKES.

...CAROLINAS...
VWP AT GSP THIS MORNING CONTINUES TO SHOW 30-40 KT WLY WINDS BETWEEN
2-6 KM ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK MID LEVEL CIRCULATION NOW MOVING ACROSS
THE SRN APPALACHIANS.  IN ADDITION...MORNING SOUNDINGS ALONG THE
CAROLINA COAST MAINTAIN RELATIVELY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
VERTICAL MAXIMUM THETA-E DIFFERENCES FROM 28-35K.  INTENSE UPDRAFTS
HAVE BEEN QUITE PRODUCTIVE IN PRODUCING DAMAGING MICROBURSTS WITHIN
SIMILAR ENVIRONMENT THE PAST TWO DAYS. SLOW MOVING MID LEVEL SYSTEM
AND ASSOCIATED INCREASED WLY FLOW ALOFT MAY ADD IMPETUS FOR STRONG
TO SEVERE DOWNBURSTS AS STORMS MAY ORGANIZE A BIT MORE TODAY INTO
SMALL LINES/CLUSTERS.

...FL...
12Z SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE STATE WILL AGAIN SUPPORT A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE PULSE STORMS TODAY WITH H85-H5 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5 C/KM
AND H5 TEMP NEAR -8C AT TBW.  MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL SHOULD
ACCOMPANY WET-MICROBURST POTENTIAL WITH STRONGER CORES TODAY. 
PERSISTENT ESELY LOW LEVEL WINDS SHOULD PUSH EAST COAST SEA BREEZE 
WELL INLAND AND EXPECT GREATER CONCENTRATION OF STORMS/PULSE-SEVERE
THREAT TO OCCUR OVER CENTRAL AND WRN PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULA.

...CENTRAL MT INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED FROM NERN WY NWWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT THIS
MORNING...EAST OF WHICH AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST WITH 50+F
SURFACE DEW POINTS. STRONG HEATING AND ASCENT AHEAD OF SUBTLE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MAY ALLOW SCATTERED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MT LATER TODAY.  STILL QUESTIONABLE HOW
MUCH STORMS CAN ROOT INTO COOLER/MORE MOIST SURFACE AIR EAST OF THE
FRONT OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...WILL
MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES ACROSS THIS REGION.

...AZ...
CLOUDS REMAIN WIDESPREAD NEAR AND SOUTHEAST OF PRIMARY UPPER LEVEL
LOW NOW OVER WRN NM THIS MORNING...WHICH SHOULD HINDER HEATING A BIT
TODAY. HOWEVER...AIR MASS REMAINS QUITE MOIST AND MAY ONCE AGAIN
SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS TODAY.  SHEAR IS A BIT WEAKER THAN
YESTERDAY...BUT AN ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND EVENT REMAINS
POSSIBLE.

..EVANS/GUYER.. 07/29/2006