[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241616
SWODY1
SPC AC 241614

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1114 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS MIDWEST AND PORTIONS OF GREAT
LAKES...

...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM RISK ACROSS MN EWD TO MI THIS AFTERNOON WILL
BE PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY. THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
WILL FOR THE MOST PART BE MARGINAL AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CURRENTLY
OVER ONTARIO CONTINUES EWD.

COLD FRONT EXTENDING SWWD ACROSS LS/NWRN WI TO CENTRAL SD WILL
CONTINUE SEWD AND PROVIDE FOCUS FOR INITIATION OF STRONG/SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON. WITH TEMPS CLIMBING TO 90F AIR
MASS WILL BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH MLCAPES TO 2500 J/KG
ACROSS SRN MN/WI AND 2000 J/KG LWR MI. AS MENTIONED PROGGED DEEP
LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KT MN/WI WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST
THIS AFTERNOON...RANGING UPWARD TO 30-35KT OF SHEAR NRN LWR MI WITH
A LITTLE LESS INSTABILITY..SUPPORTS GENERALLY MULTICELL STORM MODE.

THUS A THREAT OF LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
 EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT SRN MN/WI
AND THEN SPREAD EWD INTO PORTIONS OF LOWER MI. SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
DECREASE AFTER SUNSET GIVEN THE WEAKENING SHEAR AND MINIMAL UPPER
SUPPORT.

...SRN AZ...
EXAMINING 12Z SOUNDINGS AND LACK OF CLOUD COVER TO SLOW
HEATING...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP EARLY AFTERNOON CENTRAL MTNS
AND HIGHER TERRAIN SERN AZ.  WHILE MLCAPE OVER DESERT VALLEY WILL BE
GENERALLY LESS THAN 1000 J/KG...THE DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER AS TEMPS
HEAT TO 110F ALONG WITH DCAPES APPROACHING 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT
PROPAGATION OF STORMS OFF HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE PREVAILING ELY
STEERING FLOW. STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO
SPREAD WWD INTO LOWER ELEVATIONS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NRN PLAINS WWD TO WRN MT...
AS LARGE UPPER HIGH OVER WRN U.S. GRADUALLY FLATTENS...MID LEVEL
WLYS INCREASE ACROSS NRN TIER OF STATES.  WEAK UPPER IMPULSES...ONE
NOW MOVING EWD INTO WRN MT WILL AID DEVELOPMENT OF HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS. WHILE MOISTURE IS MARGINAL...STRONG HEATING/STEEP
LAPSE RATES AND 30KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT LOCAL STRONG
DOWNBURSTS WITH ANY STORM THAT CAN DEVELOP ACROSS MT AND ADJACENT
HIGH PLAINS LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

..HALES/GRAMS.. 07/24/2006