[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241948
SWODY1
SPC AC 241946

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0246 PM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

VALID 242000Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY....

...SYNOPSIS...
MINOR SHORTWAVE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN NORTHWEST FLOW ACROSS PARTS OF
THE UPPER MIDWEST.  LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS COLD FRONT
EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD ACROSS NWRN WI AND CENTRAL
MN INTO NRN SD.  MEANWHILE...LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS
ANCHORED OVER THE SWRN U.S.

...PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDED FROM NRN LAKE MI WWD THRU NRN
WI ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY IS VERY
MOIST...WARM AND UNSTABLE WITH DEW POINTS IN THE MID/UPR 60S AND
MLCAPE BETWEEN 1500 AND 2500 J/KG.  LATEST RUC SOUNDING DATA SHOWS
GRB WITH A SFC-3KM LAPSE RATE OF 8.5C/KM AND A DCAPE OF 1074 J/KM. 
WHILE SOME HAIL IS POSSIBLE...THIS WOULD INDICATE THAT THE MAIN
THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS.

FURTHER WEST...MODELS INDICATE THAT STORMS COULD DEVELOP THIS
EVENING EAST OF SURFACE LOW OVER CENTRAL SD AND MOVE ALONG
CONVECTIVE BOUNDARY AS INDICATED BY ELEVATED STORMS OVER SWRN MN. 
THIS ACTIVITY AS WELL LOOKS TO MOSTLY A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WINDS
THRU EARLY TONIGHT.

...PARTS OF SERN AZ...

NELY/ELY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER ERN AND SRN AZ ACCORDING TO LATEST
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY TONIGHT WHERE VERY STEEP MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES ARE NEAR 8.5C/KM.  SOME OF THESE STORMS COULD PRODUCE
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AS DCAPE VALUES ARE JUST ABOVE 1500 J/KG IN
REGIME OF LARGE TEMP AND DEW POINT SPREADS OF AROUND 50 DEGREES.

..MCCARTHY.. 07/24/2006