[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 240607
SWODY1
SPC AC 240606

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0106 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WWD
INTO PARTS OF SD/NEB...

...SYNOPSIS...
LESS-AMPLIFIED UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD...THOUGH
OVERALL FLOW FIELD -- FEATURING A RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND A
TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS -- WILL PERSIST.

AT THE SURFACE...MODELS DIFFER IN LOCATION OF N CENTRAL U.S.
BAROCLINIC ZONE.  IN GENERAL...THIS FRONT SHOULD LIE FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES WSWWD INTO NEB...AND THEN NWWD ACROSS THE NRN HIGH
PLAINS INTO MT.  THIS BOUNDARY SHOULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR SCATTERED
STRONG/LOCALLY-SEVERE STORMS...AS BELT OF MODERATE WNWLY MID-LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD ALSO RESIDE ACROSS THIS REGION.

...UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION WWD INTO ERN SD/NERN NEB...
CONVECTION IS LIEKLY TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
PARTS OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/UPPER MS VALLEY REGION...BUT MARGINAL
TO MODERATE DESTABILIZATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
NEAR AND S OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD
REDEVELOP INVOF SURFACE BOUNDARY AS UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVES
ACROSS THE AREA.  THOUGH STRONGEST MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY REMAIN
FROM LK SUPERIOR NWD...MODERATE WLY/WNWLY FLOW THROUGH A DEEP LAYER
APPEARS SUPPORTIVE ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS/STORM CLUSTERS...CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  STORM COVERAGE SHOULD
DECREASE WITH WWD EXTENT ACROSS SD AND NEB...WHERE PROGRESSIVELY
STRONGER CAP AND WEAKER LARGE-SCALE FORCING ARE ANTICIPATED.  THREAT
WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY
STABILIZES.

...MT INTO THE DAKOTAS...
MODELS SUGGEST THAT A SECOND SHORT-WAVE TROUGH SHOULD MOVE ACROSS MT
DURING THE DAY...WITH ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ANTICIPATED ACROSS
THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.  THOUGH INSTABILITY SHOULD BE
LIMITED...ISOLATED STORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  WITH MODERATE
WNWLY FLOW AT MID LEVELS...SHEAR WILL SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER STORMS
-- WITH LOCALLY-DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY TO BE THE GREATER SEVERE
THREAT GIVEN FAIRLY DEEP/DRY SUB-CLOUD LAYER.  SOME HINT EXISTS IN
THE MODELS THAT ENHANCED WARM ADVECTION OVER THE NRN HIGH PLAINS MAY
RESULT IN A LOCALLY-GREATER THREAT...BUT QUESTIONS REGARDING DEGREE
OF INSTABILITY AND TIMING OF UPPER FEATURE PRECLUDE AN UPGRADE TO
SLIGHT RISK ATTM.

..GOSS.. 07/24/2006