[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 241226
SWODY1
SPC AC 241224

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0724 AM CDT MON JUL 24 2006

VALID 241300Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES STATES...

WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL BE PRESENT TODAY FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
SEVERAL WEAK IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN FLOW THAT WILL HELP TO
INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES INTO MI. 
OTHER SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TODAY BENEATH UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE WESTERN STATES...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST IN PLUME OF
TROPICAL AIR.

...GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MIDWEST...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW ROTATING TOWARD LAKE SUPERIOR WILL PROGRESS
INTO MI TODAY. RELATIVELY STRONG WESTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS AHEAD OF
SYSTEM WILL HELP TRANSPORT WARM/MOIST AIRMASS INTO REGION WITH
AFTERNOON DEWPOINTS WELL INTO THE 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 1500
J/KG.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON
ALONG WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY FROM WEST CENTRAL MN...ACROSS WI...INTO
NORTHERN LOWER MI.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THE
EVENING...SPREADING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF LOWER MI.  FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SUGGEST FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED/SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

...NORTHERN PLAINS...
STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WILL HELP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM MN WESTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  HOWEVER...WEAKER DEEP LAYER
FLOW AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL TEND TO MINIMIZE ORGANIZED
SEVERE THREAT IN THESE AREAS.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ARE ROTATING AROUND RIDGE CENTERED
OVER UT.  ONE FEATURE IS NOW OVER CENTRAL ORE...AND WILL LIKELY MOVE
INTO ID BY THIS AFTERNOON.  ENHANCED LIFT AHEAD OF FEATURE WILL AID
IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF
ID/WESTERN MT. MEAGER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIMIT CAPE. 
HOWEVER...DEEP MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER SUGGESTS A THREAT OF GUSTY WINDS
 IN STRONGER CELLS.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 07/24/2006