[SWODY1] SWODY1

[Severe Weather Outlook Day 1]

ACUS01 KWNS 231240
SWODY1
SPC AC 231238

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0738 AM CDT SUN JUL 23 2006

VALID 231300Z - 241200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF GA...THE
CAROLINAS...AND SOUTHEAST VA...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
MN...WI...AND UPPER MI...

...GA/SC INTO MID ATLANTIC REGION...
LARGE UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE
WESTERN STATES TODAY...WHILE BROAD TROUGH AND MODERATELY STRONG
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT PROMOTES SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE
CENTRAL GULF STATES INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION.  EARLY VISIBLE
IMAGERY SHOWS BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS OVER THIS AREA...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
FAIRLY STRONG HEATING FROM GA/SC INTO SOUTHEAST VA.  SURFACE
DEWPOINTS NEAR 70F...CAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000 J/KG...AND WEAK
CAPPING WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BY
MID AFTERNOON. WESTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS OF 25-35 KNOTS WILL HELP
ORGANIZE STORMS IN THIS REGION...WITH BANDS OF CONVECTION CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL EXPECTED.  SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS MAY ALSO
ENHANCE SEVERE THREAT NEAR THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON.

...MN/WI/UPPER MI...
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS FAST-MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS MANITOBA/SASKATCHEWAN.  THIS FEATURE WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON NEAR
WINNIPEG...WITH ACTIVITY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OF
NORTHERN MN/NORTHWEST WI/UPPER MI.  STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
FORECAST IN THIS REGION...ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR FOR
SUPERCELLS/BOWS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

...NORTHERN ROCKIES...
MODERATE WESTERLY FLOW IS PRESENT TODAY OVER THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...WITH UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE ROTATING OVER TOP OF RIDGE INTO
ID/MT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO FORM AHEAD OF SYSTEM
THIS AFTERNOON...WHERE HOT SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INVERTED-V
THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS.

...SOUTHWEST STATES...
BAND OF NORTHERLY/NORTHEASTERLY MID LEVEL WINDS EXTENDS FROM CO INTO
SOUTHERN AZ.  THIS AXIS WILL LIKELY SEE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS. STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF
GUSTY WINDS IN STRONGER CELLS...AND STRONGER MID LEVEL WINDS WILL
HELP ORGANIZE STORMS AND MOVE THEM OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

..HART/CROSBIE.. 07/23/2006